Veda exportación granos rusos rige hasta recolección 2011: Putin
jueves 2 de septiembre de 2010
MOSCU, sep 2 (Reuters) - Rusia sólo puede considerar la cancelación de su prohibición de las exportaciones de granos después de que se haya recolectado la cosecha del próximo año, dijo el jueves el primer ministro Vladimir Putin.
"Desearía notar que el levantamiento de la prohibición de las exportaciones sólo puede ser considerado después de que se haya recolectado la cosecha del próximo año", dijo.
Rusia recolectará la cosecha del próximo año hacia noviembre del 2011. Un analista dijo que Putin podría haberse referido a la cosecha de este año.
"Podría haber sido un error", dijo Andrei Sizov Sr, presidente ejecutivo de la firma de análisis agrícola SovEcon.
Sin embargo, después de las declaraciones de Putin, su portavoz confirmó el contenido de los dichos.
Cuando se le preguntó específicamente si Putin de hecho se había referido a que la veda -actualmente vigente del 15 de agosto al 31 de diciembre del 2010- podría no ser levantada hasta la recolección de la cosecha del próximo año en noviembre del 2011, el portavoz Dmitry Peskov dijo a Reuters:
"Eso es lo que anunció Putin".
Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta trigo. Mostrar todas las entradas
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jueves, 2 de septiembre de 2010
lunes, 9 de agosto de 2010
Rusia extendería prohibición a exportar trigo
Trigo cae, futuros 2011 escalan por temores veda
lunes 9 de agosto de 2010 19:32 ART
Por Rod Nickel
WINNIPEG, Manitoba, ago 9 (Reuters) - Los futuros del trigo para el 2011 y en adelante subieron fuertemente ante los temores de que una ola de calor pueda dañar la cosecha que los agricultores rusos usualmente siembran en septiembre.
El primer ministro ruso Vladimir Putin avivó la ansiedad al referir que algunas regiones claves no podrán iniciar la siembra invernal y que la veda que rige a las exportaciones de granos podría ser ampliada más allá del 31 de diciembre.
"Si alguno está esperando al 31 de diciembre, está esperando en vano", dijo Putin en una reunión.
En Chicago, los contratos de la nueva cosecha marcaron las mayores ganancias, con la posición julio 2011 subiendo un 1,6 por ciento y las del 2012 y 2013 ampliando más sus ganancias.
Los precios del trigo se casi duplicaron desde fines de junio a máximos de dos años el viernes.
Analistas de SovEcon dijeron que el Gobierno ruso podría extender su veda a las exportaciones de granos más allá del 31 de diciembre, ante la estrechez de la oferta interna.
En ese caso, las ventas externas del país en el ciclo 2010/11 podría rondar los 3 millones de toneladas, en lugar de las 10 u 11 millones de tonelasa que se esperaban, dijo SovEcon.
Las previsiones indican que esta será otra semana volátil en los mercados, con el foco puesto sobre el reporte de oferta, demanda y reservas de granos del Departamento de Agricultura de Estados Unidos (USDA) y con parte de los efectos de la prohibición rusa aún por verse.
"El mercado está en un estado extremo de incertidumbre", dijo un operador alemán el lunes.
En París, el contrato de referencia de noviembre subió 1,8 por ciento, a 213,25 euros por tonelada.
La gran cantidad de inventarios que hay a nivel mundial contrarrestan parcialmente las preocupaciones causadas por las menores cosechas del área del Mar Negro.
Las cosechas de Ucrania y Kazajistán también fueron duramente golpeadas por la sequía, mientras exportadores de primer nivel mundial, como Canadá, se vieron obligados a recortar su área de siembra debido a un exceso de lluvias.
lunes 9 de agosto de 2010 19:32 ART
Por Rod Nickel
WINNIPEG, Manitoba, ago 9 (Reuters) - Los futuros del trigo para el 2011 y en adelante subieron fuertemente ante los temores de que una ola de calor pueda dañar la cosecha que los agricultores rusos usualmente siembran en septiembre.
El primer ministro ruso Vladimir Putin avivó la ansiedad al referir que algunas regiones claves no podrán iniciar la siembra invernal y que la veda que rige a las exportaciones de granos podría ser ampliada más allá del 31 de diciembre.
"Si alguno está esperando al 31 de diciembre, está esperando en vano", dijo Putin en una reunión.
En Chicago, los contratos de la nueva cosecha marcaron las mayores ganancias, con la posición julio 2011 subiendo un 1,6 por ciento y las del 2012 y 2013 ampliando más sus ganancias.
Los precios del trigo se casi duplicaron desde fines de junio a máximos de dos años el viernes.
Analistas de SovEcon dijeron que el Gobierno ruso podría extender su veda a las exportaciones de granos más allá del 31 de diciembre, ante la estrechez de la oferta interna.
En ese caso, las ventas externas del país en el ciclo 2010/11 podría rondar los 3 millones de toneladas, en lugar de las 10 u 11 millones de tonelasa que se esperaban, dijo SovEcon.
Las previsiones indican que esta será otra semana volátil en los mercados, con el foco puesto sobre el reporte de oferta, demanda y reservas de granos del Departamento de Agricultura de Estados Unidos (USDA) y con parte de los efectos de la prohibición rusa aún por verse.
"El mercado está en un estado extremo de incertidumbre", dijo un operador alemán el lunes.
En París, el contrato de referencia de noviembre subió 1,8 por ciento, a 213,25 euros por tonelada.
La gran cantidad de inventarios que hay a nivel mundial contrarrestan parcialmente las preocupaciones causadas por las menores cosechas del área del Mar Negro.
Las cosechas de Ucrania y Kazajistán también fueron duramente golpeadas por la sequía, mientras exportadores de primer nivel mundial, como Canadá, se vieron obligados a recortar su área de siembra debido a un exceso de lluvias.
domingo, 1 de agosto de 2010
El trigo se ha vuelto loco
Ni siquiera en 2008, cuando todos los precios rompían récords se registró una suba de precios para el trigo como la que se concretó en este mes de julio. La expansión del maíz y la soja en EEUU y Argentina había recortado algunas áreas trigueras tradicionales. La expansión de la canola en Canadá había hecho otro tanto. Justamente en Canadá, las lluvias excesivas causaron graves daños a la producción. Y entonces sucedió lo grave. Propio de estos tiempos de cambio climático. Una ola de calor arrasó los cultivos desde Kazakastán a Alemania, pasando por Rusia y Ucrania, productores que en los últimos cinco años se han vuelto de fundamental importancia.
Un nuevo empuje malthusiano sobre los precios. Porque mientras el crecimiento desaforado de la demanda empuja las áreas de oleaginosas y del maíz destinado a etanol, se achica el área de trigo y cebada y eso, en un planeta recalentado, es un factor de permanente posibilidad de desbarajuste. Ahora el International Grain Council, el Departamento de Agricultura y la FAO están ajustando aceleradamente a la baja sus previsiones de stock para 2011 y el mercado está reaccionando con pánico.
Muchos productores de Uruguay y Argentina se habían mantenido escépticos respecto a la siembra del cereal y ahora enfrentan, especialmente en el caso uruguayo la disyuntiva de sembrar ya en una fecha en la que el potencial de rendimiento se ve amenazado.
Plantar trigo en agosto está fuera de manual, pero también está fuera de lo previsto un precio superior a US$ 200 por tonelada, el que seguramente será ofrecido esta semana. Y por cebada ni hablar. Con cotizaciones de US$ 210, más de uno se subirá a la sembradora y le pedirá al clima que no lo castigue por la osadía.
Un nuevo empuje malthusiano, como para convencer a los escépticos que queden.
Un nuevo empuje malthusiano sobre los precios. Porque mientras el crecimiento desaforado de la demanda empuja las áreas de oleaginosas y del maíz destinado a etanol, se achica el área de trigo y cebada y eso, en un planeta recalentado, es un factor de permanente posibilidad de desbarajuste. Ahora el International Grain Council, el Departamento de Agricultura y la FAO están ajustando aceleradamente a la baja sus previsiones de stock para 2011 y el mercado está reaccionando con pánico.
Muchos productores de Uruguay y Argentina se habían mantenido escépticos respecto a la siembra del cereal y ahora enfrentan, especialmente en el caso uruguayo la disyuntiva de sembrar ya en una fecha en la que el potencial de rendimiento se ve amenazado.
Plantar trigo en agosto está fuera de manual, pero también está fuera de lo previsto un precio superior a US$ 200 por tonelada, el que seguramente será ofrecido esta semana. Y por cebada ni hablar. Con cotizaciones de US$ 210, más de uno se subirá a la sembradora y le pedirá al clima que no lo castigue por la osadía.
Un nuevo empuje malthusiano, como para convencer a los escépticos que queden.
miércoles, 29 de julio de 2009
Excelentes rindes de trigo en EEUU
US Wheat Tour: First Day Shows "Monster" Yield Potential
10:45 PM, julio 28, 2009
By Tom Polansek
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
MANDAN, N.D. (Dow Jones)--Field surveys on the first day of the Wheat
Quality Council's annual U.S. spring wheat tour showed the crop has the
potential to produce the highest yield in years, scouts said.
Based on surveys on 165 fields Tuesday, the average yield calculated for hard
red spring wheat was 45.7 bushels per acre, up from the 37.6 bushels last year.
That is the highest yield calculated on the first day of the tour since at
least 2001, according to data from the council.
"This obviously is a monster crop so far on the first day," a veteran tour
scout said.
The tour's estimate for the day seemed to be "right on" in reflecting the
crop's strong potential, said Ben Handcock, executive vice president of the
council. HRS wheat, used to make bread, benefited from "great subsoil moisture"
after a wet spring, he said. Cool weather this summer also has given the crop
time to develop after being planted late due to the wet, cool spring.
"I think it's a tremendous crop," Handcock said.
The 2009 Hard Spring Wheat and Durum Tour kicked off Tuesday morning from
Fargo, N.D., as about 55 crop scouts - including representatives of the milling
and baking industries, universities, grain groups and the media - fanned out on
different routes across North Dakota. Some routes also stretched into western
Minnesota and northern South Dakota. Scouts met up in Mandan, N.D, to compare
notes.
In addition to HRS wheat, crop scouts surveyed five fields of durum, used to
make pasta, and 14 fields of hard red winter wheat, used to make bread. The
average calculated yield for HRW wheat was 49.3 bushels, up from 45.9 bushels
last year.
The average calculated yield for durum was 44.2 bushels, up from 27.4 bushels
last year. Scouts expect to see more durum fields Wednesday.
HRS wheat and durum yields last year were hurt by hot, dry weather in western
North Dakota. By contrast, wetness in the west this year is expected to help
boost North Dakota's production.
In general, wheat had minor problems with diseases like smut and tan spot but
did not show serious disease pressure, scouts said. There were reports of dry
topsoil in some areas, including parts of eastern North Dakota that have not
seen much rain lately, they said.
A scout on one route that headed south from Fargo and then west into Ransom,
Lamoure and Logan counties said moisture looked "a little bit short, but it
didn't look like the plants were suffering from it." A scout who headed north
from Fargo said conditions looked dry heading into Griggs County and that wheat
"looked stressed a little bit."
There were reports of pests in wheat fields, including grasshoppers, aphids
and wheat stem maggots. They can reduce grain quality and yield by eating away
at plants, but the infestations were described as minor.
HRS wheat is generally less mature than normal this year due to the late
planting and cool summer, scouts said. Many estimated it would be about four
weeks until the spring wheat harvest could begin. Winter wheat, meanwhile, is
nearly ready to cut, they said.
The delayed planting of spring wheat was evident as scouts saw "unevenness"
in the crop as the tour headed west from Fargo, a veteran scout said. The
health of fields also looked "widely variable" because some farmers applied
fungicides and ample fertilizer while others did not, one producer on the tour
said.
Handcock said he expected scouts on Wednesday would continue to see generally
good-looking wheat. Tour participants will depart Mandan and meet up in Devils
Lake, N.D., to compare notes after a second full day of surveys.
The tour concludes Thursday in Fargo with the release of final yield
estimates around 3:45 p.m. EDT. The tour does not issue a production estimate.
-By Tom Polansek, Dow Jones Newswires; 312-341-5780;
tom.polansek@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
07-28-09 2345ET
10:45 PM, julio 28, 2009
By Tom Polansek
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
MANDAN, N.D. (Dow Jones)--Field surveys on the first day of the Wheat
Quality Council's annual U.S. spring wheat tour showed the crop has the
potential to produce the highest yield in years, scouts said.
Based on surveys on 165 fields Tuesday, the average yield calculated for hard
red spring wheat was 45.7 bushels per acre, up from the 37.6 bushels last year.
That is the highest yield calculated on the first day of the tour since at
least 2001, according to data from the council.
"This obviously is a monster crop so far on the first day," a veteran tour
scout said.
The tour's estimate for the day seemed to be "right on" in reflecting the
crop's strong potential, said Ben Handcock, executive vice president of the
council. HRS wheat, used to make bread, benefited from "great subsoil moisture"
after a wet spring, he said. Cool weather this summer also has given the crop
time to develop after being planted late due to the wet, cool spring.
"I think it's a tremendous crop," Handcock said.
The 2009 Hard Spring Wheat and Durum Tour kicked off Tuesday morning from
Fargo, N.D., as about 55 crop scouts - including representatives of the milling
and baking industries, universities, grain groups and the media - fanned out on
different routes across North Dakota. Some routes also stretched into western
Minnesota and northern South Dakota. Scouts met up in Mandan, N.D, to compare
notes.
In addition to HRS wheat, crop scouts surveyed five fields of durum, used to
make pasta, and 14 fields of hard red winter wheat, used to make bread. The
average calculated yield for HRW wheat was 49.3 bushels, up from 45.9 bushels
last year.
The average calculated yield for durum was 44.2 bushels, up from 27.4 bushels
last year. Scouts expect to see more durum fields Wednesday.
HRS wheat and durum yields last year were hurt by hot, dry weather in western
North Dakota. By contrast, wetness in the west this year is expected to help
boost North Dakota's production.
In general, wheat had minor problems with diseases like smut and tan spot but
did not show serious disease pressure, scouts said. There were reports of dry
topsoil in some areas, including parts of eastern North Dakota that have not
seen much rain lately, they said.
A scout on one route that headed south from Fargo and then west into Ransom,
Lamoure and Logan counties said moisture looked "a little bit short, but it
didn't look like the plants were suffering from it." A scout who headed north
from Fargo said conditions looked dry heading into Griggs County and that wheat
"looked stressed a little bit."
There were reports of pests in wheat fields, including grasshoppers, aphids
and wheat stem maggots. They can reduce grain quality and yield by eating away
at plants, but the infestations were described as minor.
HRS wheat is generally less mature than normal this year due to the late
planting and cool summer, scouts said. Many estimated it would be about four
weeks until the spring wheat harvest could begin. Winter wheat, meanwhile, is
nearly ready to cut, they said.
The delayed planting of spring wheat was evident as scouts saw "unevenness"
in the crop as the tour headed west from Fargo, a veteran scout said. The
health of fields also looked "widely variable" because some farmers applied
fungicides and ample fertilizer while others did not, one producer on the tour
said.
Handcock said he expected scouts on Wednesday would continue to see generally
good-looking wheat. Tour participants will depart Mandan and meet up in Devils
Lake, N.D., to compare notes after a second full day of surveys.
The tour concludes Thursday in Fargo with the release of final yield
estimates around 3:45 p.m. EDT. The tour does not issue a production estimate.
-By Tom Polansek, Dow Jones Newswires; 312-341-5780;
tom.polansek@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
07-28-09 2345ET
miércoles, 22 de julio de 2009
Mucho trigo en el mundo aunque hay recortes en la oferta
World Wheat Supply Expected To Stay Ample As Output Dips
12:50 PM, julio 20, 2009
By Tom Polansek
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--The world won't produce as much wheat this year as
expected, but supplies will still be more than enough to meet demand and
pressure prices, analysts said.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in its July supply and demand report,
raised its 2009-10 production forecast 420,000 tons from last month to 656.48
million bushels. Higher output by the U.S. and FSU-12 countries more than
offset reduced estimates for Argentina, Canada and the European Union.
But estimates for Argentina, Russia and possibly Australia are poised to fall
in the coming months as farmers grapple with weather problems, analysts said.
The countries are important exporters on the world market.
"I think the trend in global production estimates is going to start turning
downward," said Dan Manternach, ag services director for Doane Advisory
Services. "I think the fundamentals are leaning toward tighter global ending
stocks."
The USDA, in the supply and demand report, cut its estimate for 2009-10 world
wheat ending stocks by 1.37 million tons from last month to 181.28 million. The
decline ended a series of increases in ending stocks estimates.
Still, the world is nowhere near having a shortage of wheat. Supplies are
considered tight if ending stocks amount to less than a 90-day supply, and the
world has "well over" 100 days of supply, Manternach said.
"There are still plenty of stocks out there to keep prices at a depressed
level," Citigroup analyst Terry Reilly said.
Citigroup estimated world production at 651 million tons, while AgResource
Company estimated production at 640.5 million to 644.5 million. Activity in
U.S. wheat futures will "be based in supply through the summer, namely figuring
out production in chief exporting countries," AgResource said in a note.
Citigroup pegged Argentina's crop at 7.3 million tons, down 2.2 million from
USDA's July estimate. Dryness, low prices and high financing costs have
discouraged producers from planting wheat.
The Buenos Aires Cereals exchange this week trimmed its forecast for 2009-10
wheat area to 2.75 million hectares, a drop of 40.2% on the year and the
smallest area going to wheat in more than 100 years. A wheat area of that size
would eliminate Argentina as a wheat exporter and likely trigger imports of
500,000 tons to 1 million tons, likely from the U.S., according to AgResource.
"On the margin, global supplies are decreasing," the firm said.
Trade estimates peg Australia's crop around 21 million to 23 million tons,
and any revision will likely be to the downside, Reilly said. There are
concerns that El Nino, a warming of the waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean,
could encourage dryness in certain areas and hurt production, he said. The USDA
this month pegged Australia's crop at 23 million.
The USDA's estimate for a Russian crop of 60 million tons is likely
overstated by 1.5 million to 2 million due to dryness, Reilly said. Russia's
deputy agriculture minister earlier this month said farmers would harvest less
grain than previously expected due to worsening macroeconomic conditions and
cold weather that slowed spring planting.
The USDA's estimate for a Kazakh crop of 14.5 million tons is about 1.5
million tons too high, Reilly said. The government's wheat area and yield
estimates for Kazakhstan are overstated, he said.
Russia and Kazakhstan have become more important players on the world wheat
market in recent years. Traditionally, the top five global wheat exporters have
been the U.S., Argentina, Australia, Canada and the European Union.
Strong crops in the U.S. and other countries could make up for some of the
losses elsewhere. Strategie Grains last week marginally increased its European
Union 2009-10 soft wheat production forecast to 126.5 million tons due to
higher production in central and eastern areas.
-By Tom Polansek, Dow Jones Newswires; 312-341-5780;
tom.polansek@dowjones.com
12:50 PM, julio 20, 2009
By Tom Polansek
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--The world won't produce as much wheat this year as
expected, but supplies will still be more than enough to meet demand and
pressure prices, analysts said.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in its July supply and demand report,
raised its 2009-10 production forecast 420,000 tons from last month to 656.48
million bushels. Higher output by the U.S. and FSU-12 countries more than
offset reduced estimates for Argentina, Canada and the European Union.
But estimates for Argentina, Russia and possibly Australia are poised to fall
in the coming months as farmers grapple with weather problems, analysts said.
The countries are important exporters on the world market.
"I think the trend in global production estimates is going to start turning
downward," said Dan Manternach, ag services director for Doane Advisory
Services. "I think the fundamentals are leaning toward tighter global ending
stocks."
The USDA, in the supply and demand report, cut its estimate for 2009-10 world
wheat ending stocks by 1.37 million tons from last month to 181.28 million. The
decline ended a series of increases in ending stocks estimates.
Still, the world is nowhere near having a shortage of wheat. Supplies are
considered tight if ending stocks amount to less than a 90-day supply, and the
world has "well over" 100 days of supply, Manternach said.
"There are still plenty of stocks out there to keep prices at a depressed
level," Citigroup analyst Terry Reilly said.
Citigroup estimated world production at 651 million tons, while AgResource
Company estimated production at 640.5 million to 644.5 million. Activity in
U.S. wheat futures will "be based in supply through the summer, namely figuring
out production in chief exporting countries," AgResource said in a note.
Citigroup pegged Argentina's crop at 7.3 million tons, down 2.2 million from
USDA's July estimate. Dryness, low prices and high financing costs have
discouraged producers from planting wheat.
The Buenos Aires Cereals exchange this week trimmed its forecast for 2009-10
wheat area to 2.75 million hectares, a drop of 40.2% on the year and the
smallest area going to wheat in more than 100 years. A wheat area of that size
would eliminate Argentina as a wheat exporter and likely trigger imports of
500,000 tons to 1 million tons, likely from the U.S., according to AgResource.
"On the margin, global supplies are decreasing," the firm said.
Trade estimates peg Australia's crop around 21 million to 23 million tons,
and any revision will likely be to the downside, Reilly said. There are
concerns that El Nino, a warming of the waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean,
could encourage dryness in certain areas and hurt production, he said. The USDA
this month pegged Australia's crop at 23 million.
The USDA's estimate for a Russian crop of 60 million tons is likely
overstated by 1.5 million to 2 million due to dryness, Reilly said. Russia's
deputy agriculture minister earlier this month said farmers would harvest less
grain than previously expected due to worsening macroeconomic conditions and
cold weather that slowed spring planting.
The USDA's estimate for a Kazakh crop of 14.5 million tons is about 1.5
million tons too high, Reilly said. The government's wheat area and yield
estimates for Kazakhstan are overstated, he said.
Russia and Kazakhstan have become more important players on the world wheat
market in recent years. Traditionally, the top five global wheat exporters have
been the U.S., Argentina, Australia, Canada and the European Union.
Strong crops in the U.S. and other countries could make up for some of the
losses elsewhere. Strategie Grains last week marginally increased its European
Union 2009-10 soft wheat production forecast to 126.5 million tons due to
higher production in central and eastern areas.
-By Tom Polansek, Dow Jones Newswires; 312-341-5780;
tom.polansek@dowjones.com
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