Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Farmers may plant more wheat in France, Germany and the U.K., the European Union’s largest producers, for the 2010 harvest as declining costs make the grain profitable to grow, consultants said.
Cheaper fertilizer has pulled estimated production costs for next year’s crop below futures prices, said analysts at U.K. consultant ADAS Holdings Ltd. and France’s Offre et Demande Agricole.
The November wheat contract fell 16 percent this year in Paris trading after a record 2008 harvest swelled global stocks. Prices no longer cover costs, said Adrien Bebin, head of research at Offre et Demande. Next year may be more profitable as growers pay less for products such as nitrogen, he said.
“There’s a general great relief that fertilizer costs have come down again,” said Susan Twining, an analyst at Wolverhampton, England-based ADAS. “At the moment we’ve got good drilling conditions. We would expect a slight increase in wheat area.”
French farmers may sow 4.93 million hectares (12.2 million acres) of wheat for harvesting in 2010, based on comments from clients of Bourges, France-based Offre et Demande, Bebin said in an interview. Soft-wheat plantings fell 3.8 percent to 4.87 million hectares this year, according to government statistics published this month.
German Sowing
U.K. plantings may rise to 2 million hectares from 1.8 million hectares, according to Twining. German wheat sowing may be “unchanged or slightly higher,” said Klaus Schumacher, head of the economics department at Hamburg-based grains trader Alfred C. Toepfer International GmbH.
Overall EU soft-wheat production is forecast to be 130.9 million metric tons this year, with France, Germany and the U.K. accounting for 59 percent of output, according to Coceral, a European association of grain trade groups. The 27-nation bloc is the world’s biggest producer, according to figures from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Milling wheat for delivery in November closed at 123 euros ($179.74) a ton on Euronext on Sept. 25 in Paris. Wheat for delivery in November 2010, after next year’s harvest, was at 137 euros a ton.
Forecast Raised
Prices have slumped this year as the International Grains Council raised its outlook for the global wheat crop at least three times on better-than-expected harvests in major producers including the EU and Russia. The group forecasts production of 666 million tons for the 2009-10 crop year, exceeding consumption by 23 million tons.
EU cereal stocks at the end of June had jumped 28 percent from a year earlier to 62.5 million tons as wheat, barley and corn production exceeded consumption, the bloc reported in July.
The price required to cover average costs for a producer in the Cher department, in France’s main wheat-growing region of Centre, climbed to about 140 euros a ton this year from 120 euros in 2008 because of costlier inputs, according to Bebin. Cheaper fertilizer this year means costs for the next harvest will fall to between 120 and 130 euros a ton, he said.
“At current prices, if they sell the wheat harvested this summer they’re losing money,” Bebin said. “For 2010, the farmers are buying fertilizer now, and we’ve returned to levels from before the surge.”
Fertilizer Costs
French farmers are paying less than 300 euros for a ton of nitrogen fertilizer, after prices doubled to 600 euros between May and September last year, according to Bebin.
Northwest European spot prices for bulk urea pellets, used in fertilizer as a source of nitrogen, have dropped to 198 euros a ton from 525 euros a year ago, based on data from ICIS-LOR, a provider of prices for chemicals and energy products.
In the U.K., average production costs this year were about 120 pounds ($192) to 125 pounds a ton, with higher fertilizer prices adding about 26 pounds, according to Twining at ADAS.
“Clearly where prices are, for most people they’re below the cost of production,” said Carl Atkin, head of agribusiness research at Cambridge, England-based Bidwells Property Consultants. “We saw a big spike in costs for 2009, but costs in 2010 for the better producers will be below 100 pounds.”
Farmers across Europe may also increase wheat plantings as they shift out of barley, which has been less profitable, said Atkin and Toepfer’s Schumacher.
Barley Prices
Barley export prices in Rouen, France’s main grains port, have dropped 31 percent in the past year, compared with a 29 percent drop for wheat, according to prices tracked by the International Grains Council.
The fact that some European farmers are now losing money on wheat won’t stop them from replanting the grain for next year, according to Twining, Bebin and Atkin. They spoke on Sept. 22, as did Schumacher.
Farmers in the U.K. are “highly capitalized” and require cash flow from selling grain, even below cost, to finance their business and service debt, according to Atkin.
“They need to produce, even if it’s just a contribution to overhead,” Atkin said. In “most of Western Europe, the planting decision is not as extreme as in Russia or Ukraine, where people can decide to leave large parts of land fallow.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Rudy Ruitenberg in Paris at rruitenberg@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: September 28, 2009 05:03 EDT
martes, 29 de septiembre de 2009
Dairy prices to recover in 2010
Fonterra Raises N.Z. Milk Price Forecast 12% on Demand Recovery
By Gavin Evans
Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd., the world’s
largest dairy exporter, raised its milk price forecast for the coming
year by 12 percent citing a recovery in global demand.
Fonterra, owned by about 10,500 New Zealand dairy farmers, will pay
NZ$5.10 ($3.64) for each kilogram of milk solids supplied in the year
to May 31, the Auckland-based company said in a statement. It is
estimating NZ$5.20 for last season and had been forecasting NZ$4.55
this year, the lowest in three years.
New Zealand’s dollar jumped to a 13-month high after Fonterra said it
is seeing “more positive sentiment and stronger demand” in global
markets. The strength of the currency, which has gained 24 percent
this year, “remains a concern,” Chairman Henry van der Heyden said
today.
“They’ve built the high currency in and that makes you think there is
a little more upside to come,” said Darren Gibbs, chief economist at
Deutsche Bank AG in Auckland. “Obviously, if the currency races away
that comfort would tend to come out.”
Fonterra accounts for almost 40 percent of the global trade in butter,
milk powder and cheese and sells product in 140 countries. It
processes about 92 percent of New Zealand’s milk, making it the
biggest player in an industry that accounts for about 20 percent of
the nation’s export receipts.
Today’s increase is a boost for farmers who must decide in November
whether to put more capital into Fonterra to help reduce its debt and
fund expansion plans through 2014.
Early Signal
“Receiving this signal relatively early on should help our farmers to
plan their farm operations with confidence for the rest of the
season,” Blue Read, chairman of Fonterra’s shareholder council, said
in an e-mailed statement.
Today’s increase will add about NZ$650 million to farm incomes next
year, based on the company’s 2008 milk output of 13.8 billion liters.
Fonterra will announce its sales and production for the year ended
July 31 tomorrow and made no mention today of the NZ$5.20 a kilogram
payout it has forecast.
The New Zealand dollar jumped to 71.87 U.S. cents after the
announcement, its highest since August 22, 2008. It bought 71.74 cents
at 2:40 p.m. in Wellington.
The high currency has been “fully factored” into the latest forecast,
van der Heyden said.
World milk-powder prices slumped to a five-year low in July as
consumer spending slowed faster than producers could reduce output and
the U.S. and Europe offered subsidies to help their farmers export
surplus product.
Prices surged 55 percent at Fonterra’s past two monthly auctions and
reflect a strengthening of demand for all dairy products, Chief
Executive Officer Andrew Ferrier said today.
By Gavin Evans
Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd., the world’s
largest dairy exporter, raised its milk price forecast for the coming
year by 12 percent citing a recovery in global demand.
Fonterra, owned by about 10,500 New Zealand dairy farmers, will pay
NZ$5.10 ($3.64) for each kilogram of milk solids supplied in the year
to May 31, the Auckland-based company said in a statement. It is
estimating NZ$5.20 for last season and had been forecasting NZ$4.55
this year, the lowest in three years.
New Zealand’s dollar jumped to a 13-month high after Fonterra said it
is seeing “more positive sentiment and stronger demand” in global
markets. The strength of the currency, which has gained 24 percent
this year, “remains a concern,” Chairman Henry van der Heyden said
today.
“They’ve built the high currency in and that makes you think there is
a little more upside to come,” said Darren Gibbs, chief economist at
Deutsche Bank AG in Auckland. “Obviously, if the currency races away
that comfort would tend to come out.”
Fonterra accounts for almost 40 percent of the global trade in butter,
milk powder and cheese and sells product in 140 countries. It
processes about 92 percent of New Zealand’s milk, making it the
biggest player in an industry that accounts for about 20 percent of
the nation’s export receipts.
Today’s increase is a boost for farmers who must decide in November
whether to put more capital into Fonterra to help reduce its debt and
fund expansion plans through 2014.
Early Signal
“Receiving this signal relatively early on should help our farmers to
plan their farm operations with confidence for the rest of the
season,” Blue Read, chairman of Fonterra’s shareholder council, said
in an e-mailed statement.
Today’s increase will add about NZ$650 million to farm incomes next
year, based on the company’s 2008 milk output of 13.8 billion liters.
Fonterra will announce its sales and production for the year ended
July 31 tomorrow and made no mention today of the NZ$5.20 a kilogram
payout it has forecast.
The New Zealand dollar jumped to 71.87 U.S. cents after the
announcement, its highest since August 22, 2008. It bought 71.74 cents
at 2:40 p.m. in Wellington.
The high currency has been “fully factored” into the latest forecast,
van der Heyden said.
World milk-powder prices slumped to a five-year low in July as
consumer spending slowed faster than producers could reduce output and
the U.S. and Europe offered subsidies to help their farmers export
surplus product.
Prices surged 55 percent at Fonterra’s past two monthly auctions and
reflect a strengthening of demand for all dairy products, Chief
Executive Officer Andrew Ferrier said today.
lunes, 7 de septiembre de 2009
Gold toward US$ 1.000 per ounce
Gold is usually a good indicator of the trend of commodities, so... may we be in another bullish wave?
Gold May Advance Toward $1,000 as Weakening Dollar Spurs Demand
By Nicholas Larkin
Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Gold, little changed near a six- month high in London today, may rise toward $1,000 an ounce as a weakening dollar increases the metal’s appeal as an alternative investment. Silver climbed to a 13-month high.
The dollar slipped as much as 0.4 percent against the euro as a report showed European investor confidence increased for a second month in September. Gold tends to rise when the greenback weakens. Bullion last surpassed $1,000 on Feb. 20.
“The underlying factor is still the dollar,” Dan Smith, a Standard Chartered Plc analyst in London, said by phone today. “If we do see a break in the dollar, it could be one of the triggers to take gold higher.”
Immediate-delivery bullion lost $1, or 0.1 percent, to $993.40 an ounce by 1:46 p.m. in London, erasing a gain of as much as 0.3 percent. The metal jumped 4.1 percent last week, the most since April. December gold futures slipped 0.2 percent to $994.70 an ounce in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division.
Comex floor trading in New York and Chicago is closed today for the U.S. Labor Day holiday.
“Markets are likely to be thin today, but volatility could step up across the rest of the week as markets exit the summer doldrums and traders and investors position for the remainder of the year,” James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London, wrote in a report.
Higher ‘Fixing’
The metal increased to $992.75 an ounce in the morning “fixing” in London, used by some mining companies to sell production, from $989 at the afternoon fixing on Sept. 4.
“Sustained gains could be difficult without a pull back,” Pradeep Unni, an analyst at Richcomm Global Services in Dubai, said in a report. “Gold could be hit by near-term profit- taking.”
Bullion is 3.8 percent below a record $1,032.70 an ounce set in London in March 2008 and has rallied every year since 2000. Spot prices have gained in seven of the past eight weeks.
“The price increase is of speculative nature, but gold will be able to temporarily break through the $1,000 mark,” Eugen Weinberg, a senior analyst with Commerzbank AG, wrote in a Sept. 4 note. “Currently there is insufficient fundamental support to allow for a sustained rise beyond this level.”
Holdings of bullion in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by the metal, fell 0.38 metric ton to 1,077.63 tons on Sept. 4, data on the company’s Web site showed. The fund reached a record 1,134.03 tons on June 1. Holdings in ETF Securities Ltd.’s exchange-traded commodities rose 1,426 ounces to a record 7.993 million ounces on Sept. 4, its Web site showed.
Scrap Sales
“Overall market sentiment is still upbeat with constantly improving macro data, inflation expectations are idle, physical demand is absent, and scrap sales could only intensify at these prices,” Andrey Kryuchenkov, a VTB Capital analyst in London, wrote in a note. “As soon as risk appetite comes when the markets settle down ahead of the fourth quarter, gold will suffer a painful correction.”
Silver for immediate delivery in London climbed as much as 0.8 percent to $16.3638 an ounce, the highest since August 2008, and last traded at $16.28. The metal has rallied 43 percent in London this year, more than triple gold’s 13 percent gain.
Among other metals for immediate delivery in London, platinum added 0.4 percent to $1,260.50 an ounce. Palladium was 0.1 percent lower at $292.25 an ounce after earlier reaching $295, the highest price in a year.
ETF Securities’ palladium holdings advanced 11 percent to a record 452,488 ounces on Sept. 4. Platinum assets slipped 0.6 percent to 328,682 ounces.
To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: September 7, 2009 09:04 EDT
Gold May Advance Toward $1,000 as Weakening Dollar Spurs Demand
By Nicholas Larkin
Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Gold, little changed near a six- month high in London today, may rise toward $1,000 an ounce as a weakening dollar increases the metal’s appeal as an alternative investment. Silver climbed to a 13-month high.
The dollar slipped as much as 0.4 percent against the euro as a report showed European investor confidence increased for a second month in September. Gold tends to rise when the greenback weakens. Bullion last surpassed $1,000 on Feb. 20.
“The underlying factor is still the dollar,” Dan Smith, a Standard Chartered Plc analyst in London, said by phone today. “If we do see a break in the dollar, it could be one of the triggers to take gold higher.”
Immediate-delivery bullion lost $1, or 0.1 percent, to $993.40 an ounce by 1:46 p.m. in London, erasing a gain of as much as 0.3 percent. The metal jumped 4.1 percent last week, the most since April. December gold futures slipped 0.2 percent to $994.70 an ounce in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division.
Comex floor trading in New York and Chicago is closed today for the U.S. Labor Day holiday.
“Markets are likely to be thin today, but volatility could step up across the rest of the week as markets exit the summer doldrums and traders and investors position for the remainder of the year,” James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London, wrote in a report.
Higher ‘Fixing’
The metal increased to $992.75 an ounce in the morning “fixing” in London, used by some mining companies to sell production, from $989 at the afternoon fixing on Sept. 4.
“Sustained gains could be difficult without a pull back,” Pradeep Unni, an analyst at Richcomm Global Services in Dubai, said in a report. “Gold could be hit by near-term profit- taking.”
Bullion is 3.8 percent below a record $1,032.70 an ounce set in London in March 2008 and has rallied every year since 2000. Spot prices have gained in seven of the past eight weeks.
“The price increase is of speculative nature, but gold will be able to temporarily break through the $1,000 mark,” Eugen Weinberg, a senior analyst with Commerzbank AG, wrote in a Sept. 4 note. “Currently there is insufficient fundamental support to allow for a sustained rise beyond this level.”
Holdings of bullion in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by the metal, fell 0.38 metric ton to 1,077.63 tons on Sept. 4, data on the company’s Web site showed. The fund reached a record 1,134.03 tons on June 1. Holdings in ETF Securities Ltd.’s exchange-traded commodities rose 1,426 ounces to a record 7.993 million ounces on Sept. 4, its Web site showed.
Scrap Sales
“Overall market sentiment is still upbeat with constantly improving macro data, inflation expectations are idle, physical demand is absent, and scrap sales could only intensify at these prices,” Andrey Kryuchenkov, a VTB Capital analyst in London, wrote in a note. “As soon as risk appetite comes when the markets settle down ahead of the fourth quarter, gold will suffer a painful correction.”
Silver for immediate delivery in London climbed as much as 0.8 percent to $16.3638 an ounce, the highest since August 2008, and last traded at $16.28. The metal has rallied 43 percent in London this year, more than triple gold’s 13 percent gain.
Among other metals for immediate delivery in London, platinum added 0.4 percent to $1,260.50 an ounce. Palladium was 0.1 percent lower at $292.25 an ounce after earlier reaching $295, the highest price in a year.
ETF Securities’ palladium holdings advanced 11 percent to a record 452,488 ounces on Sept. 4. Platinum assets slipped 0.6 percent to 328,682 ounces.
To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: September 7, 2009 09:04 EDT
Sugar reach highest price in 28 years
In commodities, some prices are already higher than the peak of 2008.... May this support our malthusian view of the markets....
Sugar Deficit to Support 28-Year High Price, ISO Says
By Mike Cohen
Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Sugar prices, which reached their highest level in more than 28 years last week, are likely to be supported by a global supply deficit, according to Leonardo Rocha, an economist at the International Sugar Organization.
“Prices may rise slightly, but not by that much,” Rocha said in an interview at the World Sugar Summit in Cape Town today. “There will be some supply response” to the shortfall, he said.
On Sept. 2, the London-based industry body forecast demand for sugar would outstrip supply by 8.4 million metric tons in the year through September 2010. Rocha expects the shortfall to be eliminated the following year.
The ISO expects India, the largest sugar consumer, to import 4.1 million tons of the sweetener in 2009-10, 3 percent more than in the previous year. Consumption in the southeast Asian nation is forecast to rise 3 percent to 23 million tons.
“India is today the biggest driver of the sugar market,” Rocha said. “Production has collapsed significantly” due to poor rainfall, he said.
The ISO expects Brazil, the world’s largest sugar producer, to export 26.1 million tons of sugar in fiscal 2010, a 6.6 percent increase on the previous year. Exports from Thailand are expected to rise 0.9 percent to 5.8 million tons.
Raw sugar futures last week climbed to 24.85 cents a pound, the highest price since February 1981. Sugar has climbed 83 percent this year, heading for its biggest annual gain since 1980, as drought has affected parts of India and excessive rain slowed the harvest in Brazil.
Rocha expects the market for ethanol to remain static this year, because cane growers can earn better returns in the sugar market.
South Africa Constraints
Imports by the European Union may rise 1.5 percent to 4.5 million tons in fiscal 2010, while imports by the U.S. are expected to grow 0.1 percent to 2.5 million tons, the trade group said.
South Africa, Africa’s largest sugar producer, has limited scope to increase production because of shortages of suitable land and water, Johann van der Merwe, the South African Sugar Association’s external affairs director, told the conference.
South Africa produces about 2.5 million tons of sugar a year, about half of which is exported. Brazilian producers control about 10 percent of the South African market, Van der Merwe said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mike Cohen in Cape Town at mcohen21@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: September 7, 2009 06:34 EDT
Sugar Deficit to Support 28-Year High Price, ISO Says
By Mike Cohen
Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Sugar prices, which reached their highest level in more than 28 years last week, are likely to be supported by a global supply deficit, according to Leonardo Rocha, an economist at the International Sugar Organization.
“Prices may rise slightly, but not by that much,” Rocha said in an interview at the World Sugar Summit in Cape Town today. “There will be some supply response” to the shortfall, he said.
On Sept. 2, the London-based industry body forecast demand for sugar would outstrip supply by 8.4 million metric tons in the year through September 2010. Rocha expects the shortfall to be eliminated the following year.
The ISO expects India, the largest sugar consumer, to import 4.1 million tons of the sweetener in 2009-10, 3 percent more than in the previous year. Consumption in the southeast Asian nation is forecast to rise 3 percent to 23 million tons.
“India is today the biggest driver of the sugar market,” Rocha said. “Production has collapsed significantly” due to poor rainfall, he said.
The ISO expects Brazil, the world’s largest sugar producer, to export 26.1 million tons of sugar in fiscal 2010, a 6.6 percent increase on the previous year. Exports from Thailand are expected to rise 0.9 percent to 5.8 million tons.
Raw sugar futures last week climbed to 24.85 cents a pound, the highest price since February 1981. Sugar has climbed 83 percent this year, heading for its biggest annual gain since 1980, as drought has affected parts of India and excessive rain slowed the harvest in Brazil.
Rocha expects the market for ethanol to remain static this year, because cane growers can earn better returns in the sugar market.
South Africa Constraints
Imports by the European Union may rise 1.5 percent to 4.5 million tons in fiscal 2010, while imports by the U.S. are expected to grow 0.1 percent to 2.5 million tons, the trade group said.
South Africa, Africa’s largest sugar producer, has limited scope to increase production because of shortages of suitable land and water, Johann van der Merwe, the South African Sugar Association’s external affairs director, told the conference.
South Africa produces about 2.5 million tons of sugar a year, about half of which is exported. Brazilian producers control about 10 percent of the South African market, Van der Merwe said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mike Cohen in Cape Town at mcohen21@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: September 7, 2009 06:34 EDT
viernes, 28 de agosto de 2009
Argentina May Import Beef First Time as Herds Die
By Matthew Craze
Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina, the biggest beef- consuming nation, may resort to imports for the first time within two years as a drought kills cattle and export controls prompt ranchers to quit the business.
Pastures have dried up and forage prices gained so much that farmers are allowing livestock to die in the fields, said Arturo Llavallol, a director of Buenos Aires-based farm group The Rural Society. Ranchers are killing higher than usual numbers of breeding stock, compromising future output, he said.
The nation’s herd has dwindled 7 percent since 2006, when the government restricted beef exports to boost supplies in the local market, Llavallol said in a telephone interview from his farm in Saavedra, southwest Buenos Aires province. The country may need imports within a couple of years, he said.
“If we want to keep exporting, we have to lower consumption,” said Llavallol, also the vice president of the Paris-based International Meat Secretariat, an association that represents ranchers worldwide. “If you don’t have enough raw materials, you shut down the factory or you import.”
Argentines will consume about 70 kilograms (154 pounds) of beef per person this year, according to Miguel Schiariti, an analyst who compiles a monthly report for the Argentine Beef Industry and Commerce Chamber. Consumption has risen from less than 60 kilograms a person in 2006 when the export restrictions began, according to Ciccra, as the chamber is known.
Cheapest Prices
Prices in the Latin American nation are the cheapest in the world at about $1.65 a kilogram, compared with $2.82 in neighboring Brazil and $2.86 in the U.S., Miguel Gorelik, a spokesman for Argentine meatpacker Quickfood SA, said in a telephone interview from Buenos Aires.
Farmers may renew roadside protests as Argentina’s Senate votes Aug. 20 on a bill that would give President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner power to change farming policies without consulting congress, Eduardo Buzzi, head of the Argentine Agrarian Federation, told Infobae newspaper today.
Farmers and ranchers last year blocked grain and cattle shipments for four months to protest a new tax on soybeans and the export controls on farm goods. The government backed down on the new tax in July 2008 after it was rejected by Congress.
Argentina, which was the world’s largest beef exporter in the 1970s, slipped to seventh place last year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Brazil, now the world’s largest exporter, will ship four times as much beef as Argentina this year, according to the USDA.
Argentina will “celebrate” its bicentenary year in 2010 eating imported beef, milk and wheat, said Hugo Biolcati, president of the Rural Society, in an annual address during a livestock show in Buenos Aires. The show debuted more than a century ago.
Export Restrictions
Lifting the export restrictions set in place by former Argentine President Nestor Kirchner would allow ranchers to get better prices and stop them from selling breeding cattle for slaughter, according to Llavallol.
A drop in Argentine beef production and exports could hurt earnings at companies such as Brazil’s JBS SA, the world’s biggest meatpacker, and Marfrig Alimentos SA, which both own slaughterhouses in Argentina.
JBS, which became Argentina’s largest beef producer after its 2007 acquisition of U.S. meatpacker Swift & Co., has ceased investment in the Latin American nation because government controls are hurting economic growth, Marcus Vinicius Pratini de Moraes, a member of the company’s board and a former agriculture minister of Brazil, said from Sao Paulo.
‘Stopped Growing’
“We stopped growing in Argentina because of those problems,” Pratini de Moraes said in an Aug. 14 interview. “The world is currently divided into three types of countries: the developed ones, the emerging nations and Argentina.”
Ricardo Gauna, a spokesman at Argentina’s Agriculture Secretariat, declined to comment when contacted by telephone.
On Aug. 6, Fernandez announced an easing of some restrictions on beef exports. Five days later, she signed an accord to ship 80,000 metric tons of beef to Venezuela.
Parts of central and western Buenos Aires province are suffering a “severe drought,” the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange said in an Aug. 12 crop report. The exchange said its report this week may show rains failed to alleviate the drought in the area, prompting ranchers to sell off their herds.
“Undoubtedly, it’s going to affect the herd,” said Quickfood’s Gorelik. “There have been deaths, but it’s difficult to quantify.”
The Argentine diet consisting of large amounts of beef dates back three centuries ago, when cowboys, known as gauchos, in the Spanish colony would feed from wild cattle on the grassy Pampas and sell the hides.
Hoping for Downpours
Ranchers are hoping downpours will arrive later this year as the El Nino weather pattern forms, which warms ocean temperatures and creates excess precipitation on the Pampas. So far, the effects of El Nino have only alleviated the drought nearer the eastern coastal areas of the Pampas agricultural zone, according to the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange.
Opposition parties are seeking to eliminate government restrictions on beef and other farm exports in December, when they assume seats won during mid-term elections.
Still, ranchers who have given up on raising cattle to grow crops instead “aren’t going to come back,” said Luciano Miguens, a farm adviser to Union Pro, a coalition of opposition parties, in an interview from Buenos Aires. “We need to stimulate the ranching and dairy industries, which are going through critical moments.”
Markets
Last week, the yield on Argentina’s benchmark 8.28 percent dollar bonds due in 2033 rose 43 basis points to 15.89 percent, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The peso rose 0.47 percent to 3.845 per U.S. dollar from 3.833 on Aug. 10.
The Merval stock index declined 2.1 percent to 1,761.61. Banco Macro SA declined 8 percent, while Empresa Distribuidora y Comercializadora Norte SA fell 7.5 percent.
The following is a list of events in Argentina this week:
*T Event Date Budget Balance Aug. 18-21 Trade Balance Aug. 20
To contact the reporter on this story: Matthew Craze in Santiago at mcraze@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: August 18, 2009 16:31 EDT
Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina, the biggest beef- consuming nation, may resort to imports for the first time within two years as a drought kills cattle and export controls prompt ranchers to quit the business.
Pastures have dried up and forage prices gained so much that farmers are allowing livestock to die in the fields, said Arturo Llavallol, a director of Buenos Aires-based farm group The Rural Society. Ranchers are killing higher than usual numbers of breeding stock, compromising future output, he said.
The nation’s herd has dwindled 7 percent since 2006, when the government restricted beef exports to boost supplies in the local market, Llavallol said in a telephone interview from his farm in Saavedra, southwest Buenos Aires province. The country may need imports within a couple of years, he said.
“If we want to keep exporting, we have to lower consumption,” said Llavallol, also the vice president of the Paris-based International Meat Secretariat, an association that represents ranchers worldwide. “If you don’t have enough raw materials, you shut down the factory or you import.”
Argentines will consume about 70 kilograms (154 pounds) of beef per person this year, according to Miguel Schiariti, an analyst who compiles a monthly report for the Argentine Beef Industry and Commerce Chamber. Consumption has risen from less than 60 kilograms a person in 2006 when the export restrictions began, according to Ciccra, as the chamber is known.
Cheapest Prices
Prices in the Latin American nation are the cheapest in the world at about $1.65 a kilogram, compared with $2.82 in neighboring Brazil and $2.86 in the U.S., Miguel Gorelik, a spokesman for Argentine meatpacker Quickfood SA, said in a telephone interview from Buenos Aires.
Farmers may renew roadside protests as Argentina’s Senate votes Aug. 20 on a bill that would give President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner power to change farming policies without consulting congress, Eduardo Buzzi, head of the Argentine Agrarian Federation, told Infobae newspaper today.
Farmers and ranchers last year blocked grain and cattle shipments for four months to protest a new tax on soybeans and the export controls on farm goods. The government backed down on the new tax in July 2008 after it was rejected by Congress.
Argentina, which was the world’s largest beef exporter in the 1970s, slipped to seventh place last year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Brazil, now the world’s largest exporter, will ship four times as much beef as Argentina this year, according to the USDA.
Argentina will “celebrate” its bicentenary year in 2010 eating imported beef, milk and wheat, said Hugo Biolcati, president of the Rural Society, in an annual address during a livestock show in Buenos Aires. The show debuted more than a century ago.
Export Restrictions
Lifting the export restrictions set in place by former Argentine President Nestor Kirchner would allow ranchers to get better prices and stop them from selling breeding cattle for slaughter, according to Llavallol.
A drop in Argentine beef production and exports could hurt earnings at companies such as Brazil’s JBS SA, the world’s biggest meatpacker, and Marfrig Alimentos SA, which both own slaughterhouses in Argentina.
JBS, which became Argentina’s largest beef producer after its 2007 acquisition of U.S. meatpacker Swift & Co., has ceased investment in the Latin American nation because government controls are hurting economic growth, Marcus Vinicius Pratini de Moraes, a member of the company’s board and a former agriculture minister of Brazil, said from Sao Paulo.
‘Stopped Growing’
“We stopped growing in Argentina because of those problems,” Pratini de Moraes said in an Aug. 14 interview. “The world is currently divided into three types of countries: the developed ones, the emerging nations and Argentina.”
Ricardo Gauna, a spokesman at Argentina’s Agriculture Secretariat, declined to comment when contacted by telephone.
On Aug. 6, Fernandez announced an easing of some restrictions on beef exports. Five days later, she signed an accord to ship 80,000 metric tons of beef to Venezuela.
Parts of central and western Buenos Aires province are suffering a “severe drought,” the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange said in an Aug. 12 crop report. The exchange said its report this week may show rains failed to alleviate the drought in the area, prompting ranchers to sell off their herds.
“Undoubtedly, it’s going to affect the herd,” said Quickfood’s Gorelik. “There have been deaths, but it’s difficult to quantify.”
The Argentine diet consisting of large amounts of beef dates back three centuries ago, when cowboys, known as gauchos, in the Spanish colony would feed from wild cattle on the grassy Pampas and sell the hides.
Hoping for Downpours
Ranchers are hoping downpours will arrive later this year as the El Nino weather pattern forms, which warms ocean temperatures and creates excess precipitation on the Pampas. So far, the effects of El Nino have only alleviated the drought nearer the eastern coastal areas of the Pampas agricultural zone, according to the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange.
Opposition parties are seeking to eliminate government restrictions on beef and other farm exports in December, when they assume seats won during mid-term elections.
Still, ranchers who have given up on raising cattle to grow crops instead “aren’t going to come back,” said Luciano Miguens, a farm adviser to Union Pro, a coalition of opposition parties, in an interview from Buenos Aires. “We need to stimulate the ranching and dairy industries, which are going through critical moments.”
Markets
Last week, the yield on Argentina’s benchmark 8.28 percent dollar bonds due in 2033 rose 43 basis points to 15.89 percent, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The peso rose 0.47 percent to 3.845 per U.S. dollar from 3.833 on Aug. 10.
The Merval stock index declined 2.1 percent to 1,761.61. Banco Macro SA declined 8 percent, while Empresa Distribuidora y Comercializadora Norte SA fell 7.5 percent.
The following is a list of events in Argentina this week:
*T Event Date Budget Balance Aug. 18-21 Trade Balance Aug. 20
To contact the reporter on this story: Matthew Craze in Santiago at mcraze@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: August 18, 2009 16:31 EDT
lunes, 17 de agosto de 2009
La reforma de la salud de Obama y la alimentación
Whole Foods es una cadena estadounidense de almacenes dedicados a alimentos naturales u orgánicos. Uno de los ejemplos de organización empresarial exitosa que tiene mucho para decir, dentro y fuera del rubro alimentación. Esta semana su gerente y fundados escribió una columna para criticar el costoso plan de salud de Obama.
The Whole Foods Alternative to ObamaCare
By JOHN MACKEY
“The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out
of other people’s money.”
—Margaret Thatcher
With a projected $1.8 trillion deficit for 2009, several trillions more in deficits projected over the next decade, and with both Medicare and Social Security entitlement spending about to ratchet up several notches over the next 15 years as Baby Boomers become eligible for both, we are rapidly running out of other people’s money. These deficits are simply not sustainable. They are either going to result in unprecedented new taxes and inflation, or they will bankrupt us.
While we clearly need health-care reform, the last thing our country needs is a massive new health-care entitlement that will create hundreds of billions of dollars of new unfunded deficits and move us much closer to a government takeover of our health-care system. Instead, we should be trying to achieve reforms by moving in the opposite direction—toward less government control and more individual empowerment. Here are eight reforms that would greatly lower the cost of health care for everyone:
• Remove the legal obstacles that slow the creation of high-deductible health insurance plans and health savings accounts (HSAs). The combination of high-deductible health insurance and HSAs is one solution that could solve many of our health-care problems. For example, Whole Foods Market pays 100% of the premiums for all our team members who work 30 hours or more per week (about 89% of all team members) for our high-deductible health-insurance plan. We also provide up to $1,800 per year in additional health-care dollars through deposits into employees’ Personal Wellness Accounts to spend as they choose on their own health and wellness.
Money not spent in one year rolls over to the next and grows over time. Our team members therefore spend their own health-care dollars until the annual deductible is covered (about $2,500) and the insurance plan kicks in. This creates incentives to spend the first $2,500 more carefully. Our plan’s costs are much lower than typical health insurance, while providing a very high degree of worker satisfaction.
• Equalize the tax laws so that that employer-provided health insurance and individually owned health insurance have the same tax benefits. Now employer health insurance benefits are fully tax deductible, but individual health insurance is not. This is unfair.
• Repeal all state laws which prevent insurance companies from competing across state lines. We should all have the legal right to purchase health insurance from any insurance company in any state and we should be able use that insurance wherever we live. Health insurance should be portable.
• Repeal government mandates regarding what insurance companies must cover. These mandates have increased the cost of health insurance by billions of dollars. What is insured and what is not insured should be determined by individual customer preferences and not through special-interest lobbying.
• Enact tort reform to end the ruinous lawsuits that force doctors to pay insurance costs of hundreds of thousands of dollars per year. These costs are passed back to us through much higher prices for health care.
• Make costs transparent so that consumers understand what health-care treatments cost. How many people know the total cost of their last doctor’s visit and how that total breaks down? What other goods or services do we buy without knowing how much they will cost us?
• Enact Medicare reform. We need to face up to the actuarial fact that Medicare is heading towards bankruptcy and enact reforms that create greater patient empowerment, choice and responsibility.
• Finally, revise tax forms to make it easier for individuals to make a voluntary, tax-deductible donation to help the millions of people who have no insurance and aren’t covered by Medicare, Medicaid or the State Children’s Health Insurance Program.
Many promoters of health-care reform believe that people have an intrinsic ethical right to health care—to equal access to doctors, medicines and hospitals. While all of us empathize with those who are sick, how can we say that all people have more of an intrinsic right to health care than they have to food or shelter?
Health care is a service that we all need, but just like food and shelter it is best provided through voluntary and mutually beneficial market exchanges. A careful reading of both the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution will not reveal any intrinsic right to health care, food or shelter. That’s because there isn’t any. This “right” has never existed in America
Even in countries like Canada and the U.K., there is no intrinsic right to health care. Rather, citizens in these countries are told by government bureaucrats what health-care treatments they are eligible to receive and when they can receive them. All countries with socialized medicine ration health care by forcing their citizens to wait in lines to receive scarce treatments.
Although Canada has a population smaller than California, 830,000 Canadians are currently waiting to be admitted to a hospital or to get treatment, according to a report last month in Investor’s Business Daily. In England, the waiting list is 1.8 million.
At Whole Foods we allow our team members to vote on what benefits they most want the company to fund. Our Canadian and British employees express their benefit preferences very clearly—they want supplemental health-care dollars that they can control and spend themselves without permission from their governments. Why would they want such additional health-care benefit dollars if they already have an “intrinsic right to health care”? The answer is clear—no such right truly exists in either Canada or the U.K.—or in any other country.
Rather than increase government spending and control, we need to address the root causes of poor health. This begins with the realization that every American adult is responsible for his or her own health.
Unfortunately many of our health-care problems are self-inflicted: two-thirds of Americans are now overweight and one-third are obese. Most of the diseases that kill us and account for about 70% of all health-care spending—heart disease, cancer, stroke, diabetes and obesity—are mostly preventable through proper diet, exercise, not smoking, minimal alcohol consumption and other healthy lifestyle choices.
Recent scientific and medical evidence shows that a diet consisting of foods that are plant-based, nutrient dense and low-fat will help prevent and often reverse most degenerative diseases that kill us and are expensive to treat. We should be able to live largely disease-free lives until we are well into our 90s and even past 100 years of age.
Health-care reform is very important. Whatever reforms are enacted it is essential that they be financially responsible, and that we have the freedom to choose doctors and the health-care services that best suit our own unique set of lifestyle choices. We are all responsible for our own lives and our own health. We should take that responsibility very seriously and use our freedom to make wise lifestyle choices that will protect our health. Doing so will enrich our lives and will help create a vibrant and sustainable American society.
—Mr. Mackey is co-founder and CEO of Whole Foods Market Inc.
The Whole Foods Alternative to ObamaCare
By JOHN MACKEY
“The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out
of other people’s money.”
—Margaret Thatcher
With a projected $1.8 trillion deficit for 2009, several trillions more in deficits projected over the next decade, and with both Medicare and Social Security entitlement spending about to ratchet up several notches over the next 15 years as Baby Boomers become eligible for both, we are rapidly running out of other people’s money. These deficits are simply not sustainable. They are either going to result in unprecedented new taxes and inflation, or they will bankrupt us.
While we clearly need health-care reform, the last thing our country needs is a massive new health-care entitlement that will create hundreds of billions of dollars of new unfunded deficits and move us much closer to a government takeover of our health-care system. Instead, we should be trying to achieve reforms by moving in the opposite direction—toward less government control and more individual empowerment. Here are eight reforms that would greatly lower the cost of health care for everyone:
• Remove the legal obstacles that slow the creation of high-deductible health insurance plans and health savings accounts (HSAs). The combination of high-deductible health insurance and HSAs is one solution that could solve many of our health-care problems. For example, Whole Foods Market pays 100% of the premiums for all our team members who work 30 hours or more per week (about 89% of all team members) for our high-deductible health-insurance plan. We also provide up to $1,800 per year in additional health-care dollars through deposits into employees’ Personal Wellness Accounts to spend as they choose on their own health and wellness.
Money not spent in one year rolls over to the next and grows over time. Our team members therefore spend their own health-care dollars until the annual deductible is covered (about $2,500) and the insurance plan kicks in. This creates incentives to spend the first $2,500 more carefully. Our plan’s costs are much lower than typical health insurance, while providing a very high degree of worker satisfaction.
• Equalize the tax laws so that that employer-provided health insurance and individually owned health insurance have the same tax benefits. Now employer health insurance benefits are fully tax deductible, but individual health insurance is not. This is unfair.
• Repeal all state laws which prevent insurance companies from competing across state lines. We should all have the legal right to purchase health insurance from any insurance company in any state and we should be able use that insurance wherever we live. Health insurance should be portable.
• Repeal government mandates regarding what insurance companies must cover. These mandates have increased the cost of health insurance by billions of dollars. What is insured and what is not insured should be determined by individual customer preferences and not through special-interest lobbying.
• Enact tort reform to end the ruinous lawsuits that force doctors to pay insurance costs of hundreds of thousands of dollars per year. These costs are passed back to us through much higher prices for health care.
• Make costs transparent so that consumers understand what health-care treatments cost. How many people know the total cost of their last doctor’s visit and how that total breaks down? What other goods or services do we buy without knowing how much they will cost us?
• Enact Medicare reform. We need to face up to the actuarial fact that Medicare is heading towards bankruptcy and enact reforms that create greater patient empowerment, choice and responsibility.
• Finally, revise tax forms to make it easier for individuals to make a voluntary, tax-deductible donation to help the millions of people who have no insurance and aren’t covered by Medicare, Medicaid or the State Children’s Health Insurance Program.
Many promoters of health-care reform believe that people have an intrinsic ethical right to health care—to equal access to doctors, medicines and hospitals. While all of us empathize with those who are sick, how can we say that all people have more of an intrinsic right to health care than they have to food or shelter?
Health care is a service that we all need, but just like food and shelter it is best provided through voluntary and mutually beneficial market exchanges. A careful reading of both the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution will not reveal any intrinsic right to health care, food or shelter. That’s because there isn’t any. This “right” has never existed in America
Even in countries like Canada and the U.K., there is no intrinsic right to health care. Rather, citizens in these countries are told by government bureaucrats what health-care treatments they are eligible to receive and when they can receive them. All countries with socialized medicine ration health care by forcing their citizens to wait in lines to receive scarce treatments.
Although Canada has a population smaller than California, 830,000 Canadians are currently waiting to be admitted to a hospital or to get treatment, according to a report last month in Investor’s Business Daily. In England, the waiting list is 1.8 million.
At Whole Foods we allow our team members to vote on what benefits they most want the company to fund. Our Canadian and British employees express their benefit preferences very clearly—they want supplemental health-care dollars that they can control and spend themselves without permission from their governments. Why would they want such additional health-care benefit dollars if they already have an “intrinsic right to health care”? The answer is clear—no such right truly exists in either Canada or the U.K.—or in any other country.
Rather than increase government spending and control, we need to address the root causes of poor health. This begins with the realization that every American adult is responsible for his or her own health.
Unfortunately many of our health-care problems are self-inflicted: two-thirds of Americans are now overweight and one-third are obese. Most of the diseases that kill us and account for about 70% of all health-care spending—heart disease, cancer, stroke, diabetes and obesity—are mostly preventable through proper diet, exercise, not smoking, minimal alcohol consumption and other healthy lifestyle choices.
Recent scientific and medical evidence shows that a diet consisting of foods that are plant-based, nutrient dense and low-fat will help prevent and often reverse most degenerative diseases that kill us and are expensive to treat. We should be able to live largely disease-free lives until we are well into our 90s and even past 100 years of age.
Health-care reform is very important. Whatever reforms are enacted it is essential that they be financially responsible, and that we have the freedom to choose doctors and the health-care services that best suit our own unique set of lifestyle choices. We are all responsible for our own lives and our own health. We should take that responsibility very seriously and use our freedom to make wise lifestyle choices that will protect our health. Doing so will enrich our lives and will help create a vibrant and sustainable American society.
—Mr. Mackey is co-founder and CEO of Whole Foods Market Inc.
miércoles, 12 de agosto de 2009
India se queda sin agua
India atraviesa una dura sequía por el Monzón más débil de los últimos cinco años. Pero su problema con el agua es en realidad estructural. Su subsuelo se seca. Una vez más un embudo malthusiano que pende sobre la alimentación de casi 1.000 millones de personas.
El riego no es una solución para la producción de alimentos, sino solo una postergación del problema. Y si es mal usado, es agravar los problemas.
Space Images Forewarn of Indian Groundwater Crisis, Study Says
By Jason Gale
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Orbiting satellites measuring the gravitational pull of water below the earth’s surface confirm what authorities in India suspected for more than 20 years: groundwater is shrinking in some of the nation’s driest areas.
Water equal to the maximum held by Lake Mead, the biggest reservoir in the U.S., was depleted from underground supplies of three northwest Indian states between August 2002 and October 2008, scientists said in the journal Nature yesterday.
The findings suggest that pumping water from wells for irrigation is damaging India’s resources more than the government has estimated. Without measures to curb demand, dwindling groundwater supplies may cause drinking-water shortages and erode crop production in a region inhabited by 114 million people, the authors said.
“That part of northern India is really experiencing rapid groundwater decline that’s mostly human-driven,” said co-author Jay Famiglietti, associate professor of earth system science at the University of California, Irvine, in a telephone interview yesterday. “What they are doing is not sustainable.”
About a fifth of water used globally comes from under the ground, the Stockholm International Water Institute has said. Withdrawals are predicted to increase 50 percent by 2025 in developing countries, and 18 percent in developed countries, according to the policy group based in the Swedish capital.
India’s area of irrigation almost tripled to 33.1 million hectares (82 million acres) from 1970 to 1999, the authors said, spurred by the so-called Green Revolution that began in the 1960s to bolster production of wheat, rice and other staples.
River Contamination
Surface water supplies are also strained. Three-quarters of the country’s rivers, lakes and dams are contaminated by human and agricultural waste and industrial effluent, according to a report by the Ministry of Urban Development in September.
Groundwater stocks in Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana states are being lowered at an average rate of about 4 centimeters (1.6 inches) a year, Famiglietti and colleagues said. The depletion is equal to about 17.7 cubic kilometers (4.7 trillion gallons) of water a year, exceeding the estimate of 13.2 cubic kilometers by the Ministry of Water Resources, the researchers said.
More than a quarter of the land area in the three states is irrigated accounting for about 95 percent of the groundwater consumed, they said. Levels of subsurface water also appeared to be declining in western Uttar Pradesh. That state, along with Punjab and Haryana are India’s largest wheat-producing states.
Monsoon Forecast
This year’s monsoon may be the weakest in five years, the India Meteorological Department said this week. That’s exacerbating demand for watering crops and prompted some governments to divert electricity to farms to pump water, said Sunita Narain, director of the New Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment, who was not part of the study.
India’s government established a Central Ground Water Authority in 1986 to regulate pumping from aquifers. Groundwater hasn’t been developed evenly across India, and exploitation has led to a drop in water levels and seawater intrusion in some areas, the Ministry of Water Resources said on its Web site. Of 5,723 sites assessed, 839 are “over-exploited,” 226 are “critical” and 550 are “semi-critical.”
“I don’t think that the water issues are going to get the attention they deserve until we reach crisis mode,” Famiglietti said. “In that part of India, they are certainly reaching crisis mode.”
Pumping costs are being ratcheted up by the falling water table and the need to drill deeper wells, said Steven Gorelick, professor of earth sciences at California’s Stanford University.
Cost of Pumping
“The problem of declining groundwater levels will become self-limiting at some point,” Gorelick said in an e-mail yesterday. “Use will curtail when it is simply too costly to pump the water to the surface from great depths, or when the quality of deeper and deeper groundwater is no longer suitable.”
Famiglietti and colleagues used hydrological modeling and data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (Grace), twin satellites launched in March 2002, to quantify groundwater losses over more than six years.
“What is remarkable about this study is that such small declines in groundwater levels can be detected using remote sensing based on Grace satellite data,” said Gorelick. “The approach is like trying to track new construction of urban skyscrapers by sequentially measuring the average elevation of an entire city.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Gale in Tokyo at j.gale@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: August 12, 2009 13:00 EDT
El riego no es una solución para la producción de alimentos, sino solo una postergación del problema. Y si es mal usado, es agravar los problemas.
Space Images Forewarn of Indian Groundwater Crisis, Study Says
By Jason Gale
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Orbiting satellites measuring the gravitational pull of water below the earth’s surface confirm what authorities in India suspected for more than 20 years: groundwater is shrinking in some of the nation’s driest areas.
Water equal to the maximum held by Lake Mead, the biggest reservoir in the U.S., was depleted from underground supplies of three northwest Indian states between August 2002 and October 2008, scientists said in the journal Nature yesterday.
The findings suggest that pumping water from wells for irrigation is damaging India’s resources more than the government has estimated. Without measures to curb demand, dwindling groundwater supplies may cause drinking-water shortages and erode crop production in a region inhabited by 114 million people, the authors said.
“That part of northern India is really experiencing rapid groundwater decline that’s mostly human-driven,” said co-author Jay Famiglietti, associate professor of earth system science at the University of California, Irvine, in a telephone interview yesterday. “What they are doing is not sustainable.”
About a fifth of water used globally comes from under the ground, the Stockholm International Water Institute has said. Withdrawals are predicted to increase 50 percent by 2025 in developing countries, and 18 percent in developed countries, according to the policy group based in the Swedish capital.
India’s area of irrigation almost tripled to 33.1 million hectares (82 million acres) from 1970 to 1999, the authors said, spurred by the so-called Green Revolution that began in the 1960s to bolster production of wheat, rice and other staples.
River Contamination
Surface water supplies are also strained. Three-quarters of the country’s rivers, lakes and dams are contaminated by human and agricultural waste and industrial effluent, according to a report by the Ministry of Urban Development in September.
Groundwater stocks in Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana states are being lowered at an average rate of about 4 centimeters (1.6 inches) a year, Famiglietti and colleagues said. The depletion is equal to about 17.7 cubic kilometers (4.7 trillion gallons) of water a year, exceeding the estimate of 13.2 cubic kilometers by the Ministry of Water Resources, the researchers said.
More than a quarter of the land area in the three states is irrigated accounting for about 95 percent of the groundwater consumed, they said. Levels of subsurface water also appeared to be declining in western Uttar Pradesh. That state, along with Punjab and Haryana are India’s largest wheat-producing states.
Monsoon Forecast
This year’s monsoon may be the weakest in five years, the India Meteorological Department said this week. That’s exacerbating demand for watering crops and prompted some governments to divert electricity to farms to pump water, said Sunita Narain, director of the New Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment, who was not part of the study.
India’s government established a Central Ground Water Authority in 1986 to regulate pumping from aquifers. Groundwater hasn’t been developed evenly across India, and exploitation has led to a drop in water levels and seawater intrusion in some areas, the Ministry of Water Resources said on its Web site. Of 5,723 sites assessed, 839 are “over-exploited,” 226 are “critical” and 550 are “semi-critical.”
“I don’t think that the water issues are going to get the attention they deserve until we reach crisis mode,” Famiglietti said. “In that part of India, they are certainly reaching crisis mode.”
Pumping costs are being ratcheted up by the falling water table and the need to drill deeper wells, said Steven Gorelick, professor of earth sciences at California’s Stanford University.
Cost of Pumping
“The problem of declining groundwater levels will become self-limiting at some point,” Gorelick said in an e-mail yesterday. “Use will curtail when it is simply too costly to pump the water to the surface from great depths, or when the quality of deeper and deeper groundwater is no longer suitable.”
Famiglietti and colleagues used hydrological modeling and data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (Grace), twin satellites launched in March 2002, to quantify groundwater losses over more than six years.
“What is remarkable about this study is that such small declines in groundwater levels can be detected using remote sensing based on Grace satellite data,” said Gorelick. “The approach is like trying to track new construction of urban skyscrapers by sequentially measuring the average elevation of an entire city.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Gale in Tokyo at j.gale@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: August 12, 2009 13:00 EDT
Suscribirse a:
Entradas (Atom)
