Otro año de grandes cosechas

El pronóstico es del International Grain Council, básicamente habrá una gran cosecha de maíz -una vez más- por el cultivo de EEUU. Los precios se estabilizan.

The world's 2009-10 grain output forecast has beenrevised up to 1.733 billion metric tons, but is still 57 million tons less thanthe record 2008-09 crop, the International Grains Council said Thursday. The 18-million ton rise from June's world grain production estimate is partlydue to larger than expected U.S. corn plantings, said the IGC. The larger plantings, combined with an improved outlook for production in theEuropean Union, China and Africa, pushed the IGC's 2009-10 world cornproduction estimates up to 781 million tons from the June estimate of 768million tons, said the report. However, even with the upward revision, 2009-10 world corn production is alsoexpected to fall short of the previous year by 6 million tons. The IGC slightly increased its world wheat output forecast to 654 milliontons, up 2 million tons on the previous forecast, but down 5% on the year. "Prospects (for wheat) have improved in Russia, the US, China and Morocco,but forecasts for the European Union, Canada and Argentina are lowered," saidthe report.

Excelentes rindes de trigo en EEUU

US Wheat Tour: First Day Shows "Monster" Yield Potential
10:45 PM, julio 28, 2009
By Tom Polansek
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
MANDAN, N.D. (Dow Jones)--Field surveys on the first day of the Wheat
Quality Council's annual U.S. spring wheat tour showed the crop has the
potential to produce the highest yield in years, scouts said.
Based on surveys on 165 fields Tuesday, the average yield calculated for hard
red spring wheat was 45.7 bushels per acre, up from the 37.6 bushels last year.
That is the highest yield calculated on the first day of the tour since at
least 2001, according to data from the council.
"This obviously is a monster crop so far on the first day," a veteran tour
scout said.
The tour's estimate for the day seemed to be "right on" in reflecting the
crop's strong potential, said Ben Handcock, executive vice president of the
council. HRS wheat, used to make bread, benefited from "great subsoil moisture"
after a wet spring, he said. Cool weather this summer also has given the crop
time to develop after being planted late due to the wet, cool spring.
"I think it's a tremendous crop," Handcock said.
The 2009 Hard Spring Wheat and Durum Tour kicked off Tuesday morning from
Fargo, N.D., as about 55 crop scouts - including representatives of the milling
and baking industries, universities, grain groups and the media - fanned out on
different routes across North Dakota. Some routes also stretched into western
Minnesota and northern South Dakota. Scouts met up in Mandan, N.D, to compare
notes.
In addition to HRS wheat, crop scouts surveyed five fields of durum, used to
make pasta, and 14 fields of hard red winter wheat, used to make bread. The
average calculated yield for HRW wheat was 49.3 bushels, up from 45.9 bushels
last year.
The average calculated yield for durum was 44.2 bushels, up from 27.4 bushels
last year. Scouts expect to see more durum fields Wednesday.
HRS wheat and durum yields last year were hurt by hot, dry weather in western
North Dakota. By contrast, wetness in the west this year is expected to help
boost North Dakota's production.
In general, wheat had minor problems with diseases like smut and tan spot but
did not show serious disease pressure, scouts said. There were reports of dry
topsoil in some areas, including parts of eastern North Dakota that have not
seen much rain lately, they said.
A scout on one route that headed south from Fargo and then west into Ransom,
Lamoure and Logan counties said moisture looked "a little bit short, but it
didn't look like the plants were suffering from it." A scout who headed north
from Fargo said conditions looked dry heading into Griggs County and that wheat
"looked stressed a little bit."
There were reports of pests in wheat fields, including grasshoppers, aphids
and wheat stem maggots. They can reduce grain quality and yield by eating away
at plants, but the infestations were described as minor.
HRS wheat is generally less mature than normal this year due to the late
planting and cool summer, scouts said. Many estimated it would be about four
weeks until the spring wheat harvest could begin. Winter wheat, meanwhile, is
nearly ready to cut, they said.
The delayed planting of spring wheat was evident as scouts saw "unevenness"
in the crop as the tour headed west from Fargo, a veteran scout said. The
health of fields also looked "widely variable" because some farmers applied
fungicides and ample fertilizer while others did not, one producer on the tour
said.
Handcock said he expected scouts on Wednesday would continue to see generally
good-looking wheat. Tour participants will depart Mandan and meet up in Devils
Lake, N.D., to compare notes after a second full day of surveys.
The tour concludes Thursday in Fargo with the release of final yield
estimates around 3:45 p.m. EDT. The tour does not issue a production estimate.
-By Tom Polansek, Dow Jones Newswires; 312-341-5780;
tom.polansek@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
07-28-09 2345ET

India avanza en biotecnologías para climas extremos

India Developing Seeds That Can Withstand Extreme Weather
6:03 AM, julio 27, 2009

NEW DELHI (Dow Jones)--India is developing gene varieties for rice and other
seeds that can withstand extreme weather fluctuations such a droughts or floods
lasting as long as two weeks, according to a senior scientist at the state-run
Indian Council for Agricultural Research.

This can potentially reduce the country's dependence on annual monsoon rains
which are the only source of water for nearly 60% of India's farmlands and its
vulnerability in times of excessive rains.

Such high dependence on natural irrigation and the inability to limit
flooding in years of plentiful rains have led to wide fluctuations in India's
crop output and gross domestic product because two-thirds of the country's 1.1
billion people are still dependent on agriculture for livelihood.

"We are trying to develop multi-tolerance crops by combining genes," ICAR
Deputy Director General Anil Kumar Singh said in a recent interview. The gene
varieties, which have been developed so far, are very specific to either
drought or floods and not both.

But the challenge is developing crops with resistance while ensuring the
yield doesn't drop in the process, because "extreme variations in weather are
happening with increasing frequency these days," Singh said. "We already have
drought-resistant varieties of seeds but the yields are low. We don't want to
compromise on yields while developing the genes that can withstand multiple
stresses."

He said multi-tolerance genes are being developed for wheat, rice and most
other crops. The research is being done by the National Institute of Abiotic
Stress Management, set up in January 2009. This year, monsoon rains have been
18% below normal until July 23 while excess rains in some parts have caused
floods that have damaged the rice crop.

In the northern state of Assam and Orissa in east, rice sowing has been hit
by floods. However, in some of parts of Assam, neighboring Manipur, Nagaland,
parts of Uttar Pradesh, and Jharkhand in central India, the state governments
have said the situation is drought-like due to deficient rains.

India's area under summer-sown rice is down by about 21% to 11.5 million
hectares till July 17, government data showed. In a normal year, the country
has about 45 million hectares under rice cultivation.

While working on seeds with higher resistance various weather changes, ICAR
is also seeking to improve general productivity in the farming sector, Singh
said.

India's crop productivity, which the federal government has said was
stagnating, could be improved substantially through more usage of fertilizers
and expanded irrigation facilities, he said.

"Punjab and Haryana have one of the highest yields in the country because of
better inputs. We can increase yields elsewhere in the country by atleast 50%
with the seeds and technology we have now," he said.

Crop yields in rain-fed areas is about one ton per hectare, Singh said. It is
about 2.5 tons in irrigated areas.

Average rice productivity is about 2.2 tons/hectare in India which is way
lower than that in China, the largest producer of the grain.

"China's fertilizer usage is almost two-and-a-half times more than India's
and they are into hybrid rice cultivation, which has a higher yield," Singh
said adding India has started cultivation of hybrid rice only a few years ago.

-By Arpan Mukherjee, Dow Jones Newswires; 91 11 4356 3310;
arpan.mukherjee@dowjones.com

Sin China no habrá acuerdo por cambio climático

Ban Ki-moon pide reducción de emisión de gases en Beijing
Beijing El secretario general de la ONU, Ban Ki-moon, estimó ayer en Beijing que este año no será posible un nuevo acuerdo internacional sobre el cambio climático si China no muestra, en Copenhague, "señales fuertes de acciones de reducción (de emisiones)".
"Sin China no se podrá llegar con éxito a un acuerdo marco internacional sobre el clima". En cambio, si el país asiático coopera, se prevén "enormes perspectivas de éxito en Copenhague", señaló el secretario general. Ki-moon, que se reunió ayer con el presidente chino, Hu Jintao, y el primer ministro Wen Jiabao, sostuvo que China "es una potencia internacional, (lo que) aporta responsabilidades internacionales".
En la cita de Copenhague, que se realizará en diciembre, la comunidad internacional intentará llegar a un acuerdo sobre los medios para luchar contra el cambio climático. Éste ampliaría el protocolo de Kioto que entró en vigor en 2005. China, desde entonces y por su condición de país en desarrollo, no se vio obligada a imponer los objetivos impuestos ya que considera que son los países contaminadores históricos -los desarrollados- quienes deben reducir las emisiones y ayudar financieramente a los países en desarrollo en la lucha contra el calentamiento.
El anterior gobierno estadounidense, el de George W. Bush, rechazó ratificar el protocolo de Kioto por falta de obligaciones para las grandes economías emergentes como China o India. El gobierno de Barack Obama decidió, en tanto, implicarse más en esta cuestión con los dos gigantes asiáticos.

Un proyecto de ley contra el cambio climático, adoptado a fines de junio por la Cámara de Representantes estadounidense y que todavía debe ser votado en el Senado, busca reducir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero en 17% antes de 2020 con respecto al nivel de 2005, incitando a la vez al desarrollo de las energías limpias.
China y Estados Unidos representan los mayores emisores mundiales de gases de efecto invernadero.

SunPower’s Unexpected Profit Pushes Solar Shares Up

By Christopher Martin
July 24 (Bloomberg) -- SunPower Corp., the second-biggest U.S. solar module maker, led solar manufacturers higher after reporting an unexpected second-quarter profit and raising guidance for the year as renewable energy financing recovered.
San Jose, California-based SunPower rose $7.19, or 29 percent, to $32.04 on the Nasdaq Stock Market. It was the biggest gain since Nov. 24. Suntech Power Holdings Co. climbed 8.2 percent to $20.49, Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. was up 11 percent to $15.10, and First Solar Inc., the biggest U.S. module maker, climbed 7.4 percent to $169.43.
“SunPower gave a much more positive tone on how credit markets are beginning to thaw,” Paul Clegg, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York, said in an interview. He has a “buy’ rating on the shares and today raised his price target to $35 from $27. “That bodes well for China’s top manufacturers, like Suntech and Yingli.”
SunPower yesterday reported net income of $24.2 million, or 26 cents a share. Analysts expected SunPower to lose 3 cents, the average of 19 estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The company raised its guidance for the year to 45 cents to 90 cents from 25 to 75 cents estimated in April.
‘Tough Backdrop’
SunPower has a more accurate picture of the solar industry than its competitors because it makes components as well as designs and installs systems for customers, Chief Executive Officer Tom Werner said.
“You have a tough economic backdrop. There’s a lot of solar manufacturers giving conflicting views of the market,” Werner, 49, said in an interview after the second quarter results were released yesterday. “We feel we have the best sense of end-customer dynamics.”
Investments in renewable energy dropped 33 percent globally during the second quarter to $24.3 billion from a year earlier, according to industry publisher New Energy Finance. That’s an 83 percent gain over first-quarter investments.
Q-Cells SE, a German producer of solar cells, on July 14 reported a second-quarter loss and said 2009 sales would be less than it forecast. Thalheim, Germany-based Q-Cells had already cut expectations for the year three times to a range of $1.3 billion euros to $1.6 billion euros. Its shares dropped 16 percent that day.
SunPower, Suntech and Yingli may be gaining market share in Europe from Q-Cells and some of its higher-cost rivals, which now won’t give a forecast for 2009 sales, said Dan Ries, an analyst at Collins Stewart LLC in New York..
“SunPower surprised me with strong module sales in Europe,” Ries said in an interview. “Growth isn’t that great right now, so what we’re seeing is a market share shift to low- cost manufacturers. SunPower is unique because they’re gaining share even with their premium pricing.” Ries raised his rating on the company to “hold” from “sell.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Christopher Martin in New York at cmartin11@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: July 24, 2009 16:27 EDT

Corn, Soybeans Decline as Cool, Wet Weather Boosts U.S. Yields

By Jeff Wilson
July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Corn fell, capping a seventh straight weekly decline, and soybeans dropped on expectations that cool weather and rain will boost yields in the U.S., tempering the effects of planting delays.
The Midwest will be mostly cool and wet over the next 10 days, with little stress on plants, John Dee, president of Global Weather Monitoring in Mohawk, Michigan, said today in a report. Warmer weather beginning Aug. 5 should help corn and soybeans develop, said Allen Motew, a meteorologist for QT Weather in Chicago. The U.S. is the largest grower and exporter of both crops.
“With the cool temperatures and rain somewhere every second or third day, the weather has been stress-free for the crops,” said Dan Cekander, a Newedge USA LLC senior grain analyst in Chicago. “Warmer weather in August would be beneficial for pushing the crops toward maturity,” boosting production, he said.
Corn futures for December delivery fell 11.5 cents, or 3.4 percent, to $3.2725 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, capping a weekly drop of 1.3 percent. The price has declined 20 percent this year, reaching a seven-month low of $3.1475 on July 22.
Soybean futures for November delivery fell 17 cents, or 1.8 percent, to $9.15 a bushel. The most-active contract fell 0.9 percent this week and 6.6 percent this year.
Farm Survey
Prices climbed yesterday on speculation that a U.S. farm survey next month will show fewer acres were planted with corn than the government estimated in June, Cekander said.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture said July 22 it will survey growers to measure the impact of cold, wet weather on Midwest planting, increasing speculation that grain output may be lower than forecast.
The USDA may cut projections for corn by 500,000 acres and raise soybeans acreage by 200,000, Cekander said. Poor weather led farmers in parts of southern Illinois and Indiana to abandon fields for the season, Cekander said.
Recent condition ratings for both crops were the best since 2004, according to the USDA. About 67 percent of soybeans were rated good or excellent as of July 19, up from 66 percent a week earlier, the department said this week. An estimated 71 percent of corn got top ratings, unchanged from a week earlier.
“Higher corn yields can offset a drop in acres,” Cekander said. “If you don’t stress the crops in August and there is an extended growing season for soybeans to reach maturity, yields can be high.”
Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at $47.4 billion in 2008, with soybeans second at $27.4 billion, government figures show.
To contact the reporter on this story: Jeff Wilson in Chicago at jwilson29@bloomberg.net Last Updated: July 24, 2009 15:58 EDT

La lechería mundial en crisis, evalúan nuevas políticas

Dairy Chief Calls for Milk Revamp as Prices Plunge (Update1)
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By Alan Bjerga

July 14 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. milk-price support programs are hurting dairy companies as they try to expand and innovate, according to the head of a trade group representing Dean Foods Co. and other producers.

Government programs distort markets, contributing to imbalances that have helped push wholesale milk prices down 46 percent in the past year, said Paul Kruse, the chief executive of Brenham, Texas-based Blue Bell Creameries LP. He testified for the International Dairy Foods Association at a congressional hearing today in Washington.

As dairy farmers cope with low prices, lawmakers need to re-examine policies rather than increase subsidies, said Kruse, who is also chairman of the dairy group. Congress should “avoid the temptation to put a Band-Aid on an old system and look at long-term approaches that get us to grow and innovate as an industry,” he said.

The USDA, which raised dairy-export subsidies in May, is seeking ways to help milk producers, James Miller, the undersecretary for farm and foreign agricultural services at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, said at the hearing. He said the department expects prices to rise later this year and in 2010.

Appearing at the hearing, House Agriculture Chairman Collin Peterson, a Minnesota Democrat, said the department may be able to help farmers by raising support payments, adding that the USDA’s options are limited by the structure of dairy subsidies. He chuckled when asked later about Kruse’s suggestion for a policy overhaul.

‘Never’ Low Enough

The dairy foods group, which includes milk-buyers such as Kraft Foods Inc. and Safeway Inc., “can never get prices low enough,” Peterson said. He said the agriculture committee plans to hold more hearings on low dairy prices, including the role trade is playing in putting U.S. farmers at a disadvantage.

Milk prices dropped after industry output climbed to a record last year while demand fell. Class III milk futures for July delivery were unchanged at $9.89 per 100 pounds (43.5 kilograms) today on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Production is projected to fall 1.3 percent to 187.6 billion pounds this year from 190 billion last year, the USDA said on July 10. Output will decline to 186.4 billion pounds in 2010, the first back-to-back decreases since 1969, according to data from the department.

Falling Prices

Average cash prices this year will drop 39 percent, the government estimated last week. To prop up prices by curbing supply, the National Milk Producers Federation in Arlington, Virginia, paid U.S. dairies to slaughter about 101,000 cows this year, and last week began another effort to reduce herds.

Farmers are killing milking cows partly because the cost of corn, the primary dairy feed ingredient, averaged about $5.38 a bushel last year, based on Chicago futures. While corn’s average price has dropped to about $3.95 a bushel this year, fluid milk exports sank 14 percent through May, the U.S. Dairy Export Council has reported.

In June 2007, class III milk futures reached $22.45 per 100 pounds, the highest since at least 1996, as a drought in Australia and New Zealand, the world’s biggest exporters, curbed supplies. Demand increased in Asia as economic growth allowed consumers to switch to more protein-based diets.

Milk futures prices will double next year to a record $23 per 100 pounds as the U.S. dairy herd shrinks by 171,000 head, the most since 1989, Michael Swanson, a senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co., said last month. Wells Fargo is the largest lender to U.S. farmers.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alan Bjerga in Washington at abjerga@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: July 14, 2009 13:19 EDT

Mucho trigo en el mundo aunque hay recortes en la oferta

World Wheat Supply Expected To Stay Ample As Output Dips
12:50 PM, julio 20, 2009

By Tom Polansek
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--The world won't produce as much wheat this year as
expected, but supplies will still be more than enough to meet demand and
pressure prices, analysts said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in its July supply and demand report,
raised its 2009-10 production forecast 420,000 tons from last month to 656.48
million bushels. Higher output by the U.S. and FSU-12 countries more than
offset reduced estimates for Argentina, Canada and the European Union.

But estimates for Argentina, Russia and possibly Australia are poised to fall
in the coming months as farmers grapple with weather problems, analysts said.
The countries are important exporters on the world market.

"I think the trend in global production estimates is going to start turning
downward," said Dan Manternach, ag services director for Doane Advisory
Services. "I think the fundamentals are leaning toward tighter global ending
stocks."

The USDA, in the supply and demand report, cut its estimate for 2009-10 world
wheat ending stocks by 1.37 million tons from last month to 181.28 million. The
decline ended a series of increases in ending stocks estimates.

Still, the world is nowhere near having a shortage of wheat. Supplies are
considered tight if ending stocks amount to less than a 90-day supply, and the
world has "well over" 100 days of supply, Manternach said.

"There are still plenty of stocks out there to keep prices at a depressed
level," Citigroup analyst Terry Reilly said.

Citigroup estimated world production at 651 million tons, while AgResource
Company estimated production at 640.5 million to 644.5 million. Activity in
U.S. wheat futures will "be based in supply through the summer, namely figuring
out production in chief exporting countries," AgResource said in a note.

Citigroup pegged Argentina's crop at 7.3 million tons, down 2.2 million from
USDA's July estimate. Dryness, low prices and high financing costs have
discouraged producers from planting wheat.

The Buenos Aires Cereals exchange this week trimmed its forecast for 2009-10
wheat area to 2.75 million hectares, a drop of 40.2% on the year and the
smallest area going to wheat in more than 100 years. A wheat area of that size
would eliminate Argentina as a wheat exporter and likely trigger imports of
500,000 tons to 1 million tons, likely from the U.S., according to AgResource.

"On the margin, global supplies are decreasing," the firm said.

Trade estimates peg Australia's crop around 21 million to 23 million tons,
and any revision will likely be to the downside, Reilly said. There are
concerns that El Nino, a warming of the waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean,
could encourage dryness in certain areas and hurt production, he said. The USDA
this month pegged Australia's crop at 23 million.

The USDA's estimate for a Russian crop of 60 million tons is likely
overstated by 1.5 million to 2 million due to dryness, Reilly said. Russia's
deputy agriculture minister earlier this month said farmers would harvest less
grain than previously expected due to worsening macroeconomic conditions and
cold weather that slowed spring planting.

The USDA's estimate for a Kazakh crop of 14.5 million tons is about 1.5
million tons too high, Reilly said. The government's wheat area and yield
estimates for Kazakhstan are overstated, he said.

Russia and Kazakhstan have become more important players on the world wheat
market in recent years. Traditionally, the top five global wheat exporters have
been the U.S., Argentina, Australia, Canada and the European Union.

Strong crops in the U.S. and other countries could make up for some of the
losses elsewhere. Strategie Grains last week marginally increased its European
Union 2009-10 soft wheat production forecast to 126.5 million tons due to
higher production in central and eastern areas.


-By Tom Polansek, Dow Jones Newswires; 312-341-5780;
tom.polansek@dowjones.com

La semana empieza con tono optimista en los mercados financieros y de materias primas. Tras cuatro semanas de baja en el Dow Jones, la semana pasada tuvo fuertes subas que continuaron este lunes y volvieron a poner al índice en condiciones de testear los 9000 puntos.
Los resultados de las empresas presentados la semana pasada tanto en lo financiero como en lo tecnológico fueron alentadores. Goldman Sachs e Intel mostraron ganancias superiores a lo esperado y también indicadores del sector inmobiliario revelaron resultados satisfactorios y vuelve al mercado la impresión de que "lo peor de la crisis ya ha pasado".
El petróleo respondió con subas que lo llevaron de testear los US$ 60 por barril a una cotización que se ubicó en el entorno de US$ 65.
Con una menor percepción de riesgo, el dólar estadounidense baja ante las principales monedas. Frente al real brasileño está lo más destacado, ya que cotiza este lunes a 1,90, nuevamente lejos de la referencia de 2 reales que ha sido habitual en junio y julio. Cotizó hoy al nivel más fuerte desde comienzos de octubre de 2008. Las previsiones del propio Banco Central Brasileño ubican por primera vez al dólar brasileño por debajo de los dos reales a fin de año por primera vez en los pronósticos realizados este año.
También frente al Euro parece consolidarse por encima de los 1,40 dólares por unidad de la moneda europea.
Aquí en Uruguay persiste la estabilidad del dólar que ha sido característica de julio. La semana pasada fue sumamente estable y el cierre fue en $ 23,40. Si el real sigue valorizándose, el dólar en Uruguay podría testear los $ 23 sobre fines de esta semana.
También en Uruguay lo peor del frenazo económico podría estar pasando. El índice líder de Ceres, mostró en mayo un comportamiento "incambiado" respecto a abril que junto a otros indicadores de avance (exportaciones, importación de insumos intermedios) parecen dar a entender que la economía va rumbo a una gradual recuperación o al menos se ha estabilizado.

India ante un quiebre de cosechas

India Fleeting Rains,Looming Drought To Hit Main Crops
7:41 PM, julio 19, 2009
By Rajkumar Leishemba & Rajesh Roy
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW DELHI (Dow Jones)-- With three Indian states declaring drought and a
dearth of rainfall in key northern farmlands, output of staple crops such as
rice, sugar cane, wheat and oilseeds are poised to fall sharply this year.
Area under summer-sown crops - such as rice, pulses and sugar cane - has
already fallen below last year's level because of the weak rains, India's Farm
Commissioner N.B. Singh said.
Summer crops are usually sown with the arrival of monsoon rains in June and
July, then harvested by October, but sowing has been delayed for many crops due
to scanty rains in the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and
the northwestern state of Rajasthan.
India's annual monsoon rains were 27% below normal in the June 1-July 15
period. If the monsoon rains are below 90% of the long-term 50-year average,
the federal government may have to officially declare a drought.
Assam and Jharkhand governments have already declared drought in parts of
their states, while Manipur has declared it in the entire state.
Area under pulses fell to 3.8 million hectares between June 1 and July 16
from 4 million hectares during the same period last year.
Sugar cane area was reduced by 100,000 hectares in the 2009-10 fiscal year,
below last year's level of 4.2 million hectares. Rice sowing has also fallen,
said Singh, who didn't provide comparative figures.
"There is no chance of reaching last year's production level in rice, pulses
and sugar cane as the acreage under plantation of these crops is lower," said
S. Raghuraman, head of trade research at Agriwatch.com, a leading commodities
portal.
Vijay Setia, former president of the All India Rice Exporters Association,
said rice output in 2009-10 is likely to fall by more than 2 million metric
tons to 97 million tons from 99.37 million tons in the fiscal year ended March
31.
Other analysts said rice output may slip below 97 million tons if rains don't
revive over the northern regions in the next week to 10 days.
"In some parts of the country, where rains are deficient, farmers are
shifting to sowing of corn from rice," said Sain Dass, project director, Indian
Agricultural Research Institute.
Rice output is also likely to be hit partly because floods in the eastern
state of Orissa and West Bengal state have washed away some of the crop.
Sugar Cane, Pulse Crops Hit By Weak Rains
The government had been hoping that sugar output would improve in the
marketing year that begins October 1, from an estimated 14.7 million tons in
2008-09 - a sharp decline from the 26.3 million tons produced in 2007-08.
C.B. Patodia, president of the Uttar Pradesh Sugar Mills Association, said
the country's sugar cane output would likely drop further in 2009-10.
"If rains don't improve in the northwestern regions by next week, the drop in
sugar cane output could be more than 10%-15%," he said.
Sugar cane output in 2008-09 is estimated at 289.2 million tons.
Industry officials had earlier estimated that the sugar output in the new
marketing year was likely to be 17 million to 18 million tons.
Output of summer-sown pulses is also likely to fall, even if monsoon rains
pick up because the peak sowing period usually ends July 15.
"Even if the monsoon activity increases this week, pulse production is likely
to fall 5%-10% in 2009-10 from the previous year," said K.C. Bhartiya,
president of the Pulses Importers Association.
In the 2008-09 fiscal year, the country's pulse output was 14.18 million
tons, with annual pulse consumption at 17 million-18 million tons.
"The production shortfall will be bridged through imports only. As a result,
our imports will rise and may touch 3 million tons in 2009-10," Bhartiya said.
India imported around 2.3 million tons of pulses last year, according to
industry officials. The country imports pulses mainly from Canada, Myanmar, the
U.S., France, Australia and Turkey.
Delayed rains in northern and northwestern India won't only affect
summer-sown crops; output of wheat, which is sown in the winter months of
October-November, will also likely be hit.
Late rains could mean that even the harvest of the summer crops will be
delayed, leaving less time to prepare the soil for winter crops, said Rajesh
Paharia, business manager (grains) at Olam Exports India Ltd.
Insufficient monsoon rains will also reduce soil moisture and water table
levels, which would affect yields, he said.
The northern states of Punjab and Haryana are India's largest wheat
producers.
The only silver lining for the federal government is that its buffer stocks
are comfortable after two successive bumper crops and previous imports,
officials said.
-By Rajkumar Leishemba and Rajesh Roy, Dow Jones Newswires; 91-11-43563335;
biman.mukherji@dowjones.com
(Dilipp Nag in Mumbai contributed to this story)

Niño atípico trae lluvias a Australia

CANBERRA (Dow Jones)--A developing El Nino climate episode is showing
peculiar signs, including what is a temporarily strongly positive Southern
Oscillation Index, and good signs for rainfall, Grant Beard, a climatologist at
the government's Bureau of Meteorology, said Thursday.
"A lot of warmer-than-average water around Northern Australian such as we
have at the moment is a good sign for rainfall," Beard said by telephone.
El Nino is also usually associated with sustained strong negative values for
the Bureau's Southern Oscillation Index, but the SOI has risen in recent weeks.
The SOI stood at +8.9 in the 30 days ended July 14, rising strongly from the
lowest 30-day value in June of -12, the bureau's figures show.
El Nino refers to the extensive warming of the central and eastern Pacific
and cooling in the western Pacific. It generally leads to a major shift in
weather patterns across the Pacific and in Australia and usually - but not
always - is associated with below average rainfall in eastern and southern
Australia, potentially withering winter crops such as wheat and barley.
Climatologist Beard said the rise in the SOI is peculiar, but he still
expects it to fall sometime soon given what the bureau's prediction models are
saying with the warming of the equatorial Pacific.
"It's a temporary fluctuation," Beard said.
Some previous El Nino events have also seen SOI values rise but not to the
current level, and seen reasonable rainfall over southern Australia, such as in
1991, he said.
"All these events are different and this one in terms of that sort of thing
is behaving strangely" and different from El Nino events in 2002 and 2006, he
said.
"It may be one of those ones that deliver a mixed bag of rainfall outcomes,"
he said. "Every El Nino is different and some do see reasonable rainfall
outcomes."
The Indian Ocean Dipole, or IOD, also has remained in a negative mode for two
weeks, he said.
A negative IOD period is characterized by warmer-than-normal water in the
tropical eastern Indian Ocean. A positive mode for the IOD was previously
identified as a key influence for a drought in 2007 that wrecked winter crops,
including wheat, in southeast Australia, as it can hinder the formation of the
northwest cloudbands that are an important source of winter/spring rainfall in
southeast Australia.
But that isn't the case now.
"It's quite warmer than average right across the equatorial Pacific and even
across the waters north of Australia," Beard said. "There's a very wide band of
warmer-than-average water."
The high SOI is probably linked to these warmer-than-average waters, he said.
"This could be just a temporary blip, a month ago it was fairly solidly
negative," he said.
Most official and private forecasts for Australian wheat production this year
ending March 31, 2010, are in a range of 22 million to 23 million metric tons.
Australia produced 21.4 million tons of wheat last crop year ended March 31.
After annual domestic demand of almost 7 million tons is met, the balance is
available for export, making Australia a major supplier to the global trade.
An El Nino in 2006 cut the nation's wheat output to 10 million tons.

El mercado mundial de fertilizantes se mueve

ElMosaic Climbs After Report Vale May Bid $25 Billion
By Kevin Orland and Helder Marinho
July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Mosaic Co., North America’s second- largest fertilizer producer, rose after a Brazilian newspaper reported that Vale SA is preparing a $25 billion bid for the company. Vale shares fell.
Mosaic climbed $4.53, or 10.2 percent, to $49.08 as of 9:15 a.m. on the New York Stock Exchange. The shares gained 29 percent this year through yesterday. Vale fell 73 centavos to 29.80 reais in Sao Paulo trading.
O Estado de S. Paulo reported Vale’s possible bid today for Plymouth, Minnesota-based Mosaic, without saying where it got the information. BHP Billiton Ltd. is also interested in the acquisition of Mosaic, the Sao Paulo-based newspaper said.
Fernando Thompson, a spokesman for Rio de Janeiro-based Vale, said the company doesn’t comment on market speculation when contacted by Bloomberg News today. Linda Thrasher, a spokeswoman for Mosaic, didn’t immediately return a telephone message seeking comment.
“Mosaic is a little more than what I was expecting”, says Marcel Varejao, an analyst at Sociedade Corretora Paulista, a Sao Paulo-based brokerage. “In a time like this, strategic acquisitions are seen as positive in the long run”.
“Markets are always afraid Vale can make an offer for any company,” said Guilherme Sand, who helps manage the equivalent of $250 million at Solidus Brokerage in Porto Alegre, Brazil.
Potash Corp.
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. is North America’s largest fertilizer producer by market value.
Mosaic, about 64 percent-owned by privately held Cargill Inc., has been the subject of speculation this year that it may be acquired by BHP. The Melbourne-based company, the world’s largest miner, said in February it may expand its investments in potash, a form of potassium.
Mosaic is the world’s largest maker of finished phosphate products and the second-largest producer of potash by capacity, according to the company Web site. It has three potash mines in Saskatchewan, one in New Mexico and another in Michigan. The company also mines phosphate rock in Florida.
Potash is a form of potassium, a primary agricultural nutrient with phosphorus and nitrogen. Companies such as Potash Corp., Agrium Inc. and Mosaic mine the material.
Vale raised 19.4 billion reais in Brazil’s largest-ever share offering in July 2008. At the time, Chief Executive Officer Roger Agnelli said the proceeds would be used to fund acquisitions and expand existing operations.

El petróleo se hace firme en 60

Cuando parecía que se venía otro derrumbe, el petróleo vuelve a afirmarse. Seis semanas seguidas de caída en los stocks de EEUU dieron la señal para que el mercado empiece a recomponerse a partir de US$ 60.
Para los granos resistir es más difícil en la medida que EEUU se encamina a una gran cosecha de maíz y soja y en el resto del mundo hay un abundante abastecimiento de trigo.
Las fuertes presiones que enfrenta la ganadería y lechería en EEUU hacen prever además una baja en el consumo de granos para alimentación animal.

Una semana decisiva

Tras cuatro de bajas en bolsas petroleo y granos, viene la segunda ola del tsunami?

Tras cuatro semanas de bajas, todas las miradas se dirigen a mediados de julio al mercado financiero y el dominó que desde allí se traslada al precio del petróleo y de la soja, para derramarse sobre el conjunto de los precios agrícola y ganaderos. La recuperación que se insinuó en los primeros cinco meses del año está amenazada.
El petróleo muestra dificultades para hacer piso a US$ 60 al comienzo de la semana. Suma más de 10% de baja en la semana y aunque empezó hoy subiendo por ataques en Nigeria que afectan a la oferta, sigue corrigiéndose a la baja la previsión de la demanda y se consolidaron las bajas.
Un seguro contra la suba de los costos, pero un recordatorio de que la recuperación de esta crisis será muy gradual y especialmente zigzagueante. Apenas parece consolidarse la salida, el petróleo se dispara y vuelven las dudas. No habrá una recuperación basada en bajos costos de la energía como a la salida de las crisis anteriores.
A su vez, crecen las dudas respecto a que la inyección de dinero que ha decidido la administración Obama haya sido suficiente para reactivar la economía. Esta semana son muchas las empresas que reportan ganancias y darán pistas de cuánto les ha afectado la recesión.
El Dow Jones testea por ahora los 8.200 puntos con chance de ir rumbo a los 8.000 lo que sería una señal grave. Hoy lunes la baja se tomó un respiro, y el mercado cerró con subas ante previsiones de que instituciones financieras clave de EEUU como el Bank of America están emergiendo de la crisis. Pero los datos preocupantes siguen. Hoy se supo que –con los US$ 94.300 millones de junio- el déficit estadounidense superó por primera vez en la historia el billón de dólares (un trillón en términos sajones). Y se trata solamente de los datos en nueve meses del ejercicio fiscal que empezó en octubre.
La suba de hoy del Dow, ayudo a equilibrar la sesión de los granos en Chicago, que había empezado nuevamente a la baja.