India Fleeting Rains,Looming Drought To Hit Main Crops
7:41 PM, julio 19, 2009
By Rajkumar Leishemba & Rajesh Roy
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW DELHI (Dow Jones)-- With three Indian states declaring drought and a
dearth of rainfall in key northern farmlands, output of staple crops such as
rice, sugar cane, wheat and oilseeds are poised to fall sharply this year.
Area under summer-sown crops - such as rice, pulses and sugar cane - has
already fallen below last year's level because of the weak rains, India's Farm
Commissioner N.B. Singh said.
Summer crops are usually sown with the arrival of monsoon rains in June and
July, then harvested by October, but sowing has been delayed for many crops due
to scanty rains in the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and
the northwestern state of Rajasthan.
India's annual monsoon rains were 27% below normal in the June 1-July 15
period. If the monsoon rains are below 90% of the long-term 50-year average,
the federal government may have to officially declare a drought.
Assam and Jharkhand governments have already declared drought in parts of
their states, while Manipur has declared it in the entire state.
Area under pulses fell to 3.8 million hectares between June 1 and July 16
from 4 million hectares during the same period last year.
Sugar cane area was reduced by 100,000 hectares in the 2009-10 fiscal year,
below last year's level of 4.2 million hectares. Rice sowing has also fallen,
said Singh, who didn't provide comparative figures.
"There is no chance of reaching last year's production level in rice, pulses
and sugar cane as the acreage under plantation of these crops is lower," said
S. Raghuraman, head of trade research at Agriwatch.com, a leading commodities
portal.
Vijay Setia, former president of the All India Rice Exporters Association,
said rice output in 2009-10 is likely to fall by more than 2 million metric
tons to 97 million tons from 99.37 million tons in the fiscal year ended March
31.
Other analysts said rice output may slip below 97 million tons if rains don't
revive over the northern regions in the next week to 10 days.
"In some parts of the country, where rains are deficient, farmers are
shifting to sowing of corn from rice," said Sain Dass, project director, Indian
Agricultural Research Institute.
Rice output is also likely to be hit partly because floods in the eastern
state of Orissa and West Bengal state have washed away some of the crop.
Sugar Cane, Pulse Crops Hit By Weak Rains
The government had been hoping that sugar output would improve in the
marketing year that begins October 1, from an estimated 14.7 million tons in
2008-09 - a sharp decline from the 26.3 million tons produced in 2007-08.
C.B. Patodia, president of the Uttar Pradesh Sugar Mills Association, said
the country's sugar cane output would likely drop further in 2009-10.
"If rains don't improve in the northwestern regions by next week, the drop in
sugar cane output could be more than 10%-15%," he said.
Sugar cane output in 2008-09 is estimated at 289.2 million tons.
Industry officials had earlier estimated that the sugar output in the new
marketing year was likely to be 17 million to 18 million tons.
Output of summer-sown pulses is also likely to fall, even if monsoon rains
pick up because the peak sowing period usually ends July 15.
"Even if the monsoon activity increases this week, pulse production is likely
to fall 5%-10% in 2009-10 from the previous year," said K.C. Bhartiya,
president of the Pulses Importers Association.
In the 2008-09 fiscal year, the country's pulse output was 14.18 million
tons, with annual pulse consumption at 17 million-18 million tons.
"The production shortfall will be bridged through imports only. As a result,
our imports will rise and may touch 3 million tons in 2009-10," Bhartiya said.
India imported around 2.3 million tons of pulses last year, according to
industry officials. The country imports pulses mainly from Canada, Myanmar, the
U.S., France, Australia and Turkey.
Delayed rains in northern and northwestern India won't only affect
summer-sown crops; output of wheat, which is sown in the winter months of
October-November, will also likely be hit.
Late rains could mean that even the harvest of the summer crops will be
delayed, leaving less time to prepare the soil for winter crops, said Rajesh
Paharia, business manager (grains) at Olam Exports India Ltd.
Insufficient monsoon rains will also reduce soil moisture and water table
levels, which would affect yields, he said.
The northern states of Punjab and Haryana are India's largest wheat
producers.
The only silver lining for the federal government is that its buffer stocks
are comfortable after two successive bumper crops and previous imports,
officials said.
-By Rajkumar Leishemba and Rajesh Roy, Dow Jones Newswires; 91-11-43563335;
biman.mukherji@dowjones.com
(Dilipp Nag in Mumbai contributed to this story)
7:41 PM, julio 19, 2009
By Rajkumar Leishemba & Rajesh Roy
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW DELHI (Dow Jones)-- With three Indian states declaring drought and a
dearth of rainfall in key northern farmlands, output of staple crops such as
rice, sugar cane, wheat and oilseeds are poised to fall sharply this year.
Area under summer-sown crops - such as rice, pulses and sugar cane - has
already fallen below last year's level because of the weak rains, India's Farm
Commissioner N.B. Singh said.
Summer crops are usually sown with the arrival of monsoon rains in June and
July, then harvested by October, but sowing has been delayed for many crops due
to scanty rains in the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and
the northwestern state of Rajasthan.
India's annual monsoon rains were 27% below normal in the June 1-July 15
period. If the monsoon rains are below 90% of the long-term 50-year average,
the federal government may have to officially declare a drought.
Assam and Jharkhand governments have already declared drought in parts of
their states, while Manipur has declared it in the entire state.
Area under pulses fell to 3.8 million hectares between June 1 and July 16
from 4 million hectares during the same period last year.
Sugar cane area was reduced by 100,000 hectares in the 2009-10 fiscal year,
below last year's level of 4.2 million hectares. Rice sowing has also fallen,
said Singh, who didn't provide comparative figures.
"There is no chance of reaching last year's production level in rice, pulses
and sugar cane as the acreage under plantation of these crops is lower," said
S. Raghuraman, head of trade research at Agriwatch.com, a leading commodities
portal.
Vijay Setia, former president of the All India Rice Exporters Association,
said rice output in 2009-10 is likely to fall by more than 2 million metric
tons to 97 million tons from 99.37 million tons in the fiscal year ended March
31.
Other analysts said rice output may slip below 97 million tons if rains don't
revive over the northern regions in the next week to 10 days.
"In some parts of the country, where rains are deficient, farmers are
shifting to sowing of corn from rice," said Sain Dass, project director, Indian
Agricultural Research Institute.
Rice output is also likely to be hit partly because floods in the eastern
state of Orissa and West Bengal state have washed away some of the crop.
Sugar Cane, Pulse Crops Hit By Weak Rains
The government had been hoping that sugar output would improve in the
marketing year that begins October 1, from an estimated 14.7 million tons in
2008-09 - a sharp decline from the 26.3 million tons produced in 2007-08.
C.B. Patodia, president of the Uttar Pradesh Sugar Mills Association, said
the country's sugar cane output would likely drop further in 2009-10.
"If rains don't improve in the northwestern regions by next week, the drop in
sugar cane output could be more than 10%-15%," he said.
Sugar cane output in 2008-09 is estimated at 289.2 million tons.
Industry officials had earlier estimated that the sugar output in the new
marketing year was likely to be 17 million to 18 million tons.
Output of summer-sown pulses is also likely to fall, even if monsoon rains
pick up because the peak sowing period usually ends July 15.
"Even if the monsoon activity increases this week, pulse production is likely
to fall 5%-10% in 2009-10 from the previous year," said K.C. Bhartiya,
president of the Pulses Importers Association.
In the 2008-09 fiscal year, the country's pulse output was 14.18 million
tons, with annual pulse consumption at 17 million-18 million tons.
"The production shortfall will be bridged through imports only. As a result,
our imports will rise and may touch 3 million tons in 2009-10," Bhartiya said.
India imported around 2.3 million tons of pulses last year, according to
industry officials. The country imports pulses mainly from Canada, Myanmar, the
U.S., France, Australia and Turkey.
Delayed rains in northern and northwestern India won't only affect
summer-sown crops; output of wheat, which is sown in the winter months of
October-November, will also likely be hit.
Late rains could mean that even the harvest of the summer crops will be
delayed, leaving less time to prepare the soil for winter crops, said Rajesh
Paharia, business manager (grains) at Olam Exports India Ltd.
Insufficient monsoon rains will also reduce soil moisture and water table
levels, which would affect yields, he said.
The northern states of Punjab and Haryana are India's largest wheat
producers.
The only silver lining for the federal government is that its buffer stocks
are comfortable after two successive bumper crops and previous imports,
officials said.
-By Rajkumar Leishemba and Rajesh Roy, Dow Jones Newswires; 91-11-43563335;
biman.mukherji@dowjones.com
(Dilipp Nag in Mumbai contributed to this story)
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